If timing is everything, then India is in serious trouble. Indian Air Force is now operating 31 Squadrons, a Pre-1965 level. At present, India is nowhere near achieving air superiority in the event of a full-scale war or defending its skies against a two-front air attack. The Indian Air Force (IAF) is suffering not only with a reduced squadron strength but also with persistent technical snags and recurring crashes of its existing jets, which it is struggling to sustain.

It is true that the Indian Air Force is known to be one of the most lethal, professional, and intensely trained forces dedicated to national defense. But is IAF properly equipped? Does it have the necessary fighter jets, at least as per the sanctioned strength, to counter external threats? Let’s find out.

What is a Squadron & 31 vs 42 Squadrons (Operating vs Required)

A squadron in the IAF consists of 18 Aircrafts, including 3 reserve planes. It is equipped with the necessary ground staff, engineers, fighter pilots, and all other resources that make it complete, well-trained, and battle-ready.

The Government of India has recognized and approved that the Indian Air Force must be equipped with 42 squadrons to counter evolving threats and address growing concerns about a two-front attack from Pakistan and China.

Currently, the IAF is operating with 31 squadrons, a strength comparable to the pre-1965 level, when India fought a war with Pakistan. This includes two squadrons of the aging and infamous MiG-21 jets. Once considered a marvel and a deadly weapon, the MiG-21 is now outdated. And yet, it is being flown to contend with modern F-16s of Pakistan—a truly dangerous scenario.

It is only due to the rigorous training and exceptional skills of IAF pilots and engineers that these squadrons continue to operate while defending the nation.

Aging Squadrons in IAF:

Around 60 MiG-21s and 79 SEPECAT Jaguars are set for retirement, and the MiG-27 fighters have already been fully phased out by the Indian Air Force.

Mig-21 in infamously known as “Flying Coffins” due to numerous crashes due to technical snags. Jaguar Fighter jets are struggling due to outdated avionics.

To make the things worse, dependence on Russia & France for spare parts & maintenance tools for these aging jets is a pain that only IAF knows.

If new fighter aircraft are not inducted at the required pace, the IAF’s squadron strength could drop to 28 or lower, which would place India’s skies in a precarious position, increasing the potential for threats.

Limited Modernization Efforts that made to the service already:

36 Rafale Fighters Inducted from France and in Service:

India has inducted 36 Rafale jets from France, but they are not enough to fill the gap. Experts view this limited procurement as a measure to bridge the gap between the current fleet and future-generation fighters, which India will either manufacture domestically or procure again. The Rafale is one of the most suitable fighter jets for the MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) program, and it is considered one of the best 4.5-generation fighter jets. It can be deployed in various missions, including ground attack, interception, and delivering nuclear payloads. However, it is still not sufficient, as a significant number of fighter jets are set to be decommissioned in the next five years.

The Rafale fighter jets were procured in the 2016-17 period and were included in the Golden Arrow Squadron of the IAF.

40 Tejas Fighter Jets Inducted into IAF and in Service:

As of 2024, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has inducted around 40 Tejas fighter jets into service, primarily in the Tejas Mark 1 variant. The aircraft are part of the No. 45 Squadron (Flying Daggers) and are gradually being upgraded.  The Tejas is capable of carrying and delivering nuclear payloads.

Tejas Fighter Jet Mark 1 primarily aims to replace the Mig-21 and the features in Tejas definitely outperforms Mig-21.

It is one of the best examples of Indian indigenous defense production part from the impressive missile design & manufacturing.

“It is a known fact that the Tejas aircraft has been delayed. If the promise of producing 24 aircraft per year, that delay can be addressed. We need to look at private players coming in. HAL has also its own limitations and looking at the numbers involved, we need the private industry to chip in to meet the production challenges,”

Indian Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal AP Singh

All other modernization efforts are at various stages and these aircrafts have not yet reached the airfields physically. They are listed as follows:

• 12 No of Used MIRAGE-2000 from Qatar- Negotiations to Purchase Second Hand/Used, French MIRAGE-2000 Fighter Jets from Qatar, which are upgraded to current days. IAF is continuing negotiations with Qatar to buy these jets, because IAF is already operating nearly MIRAGE-2000 Fighter Jets at its Gwalior Air Base. Considering existing infrastructure, trained staff and experience, these jets can be smoothly integrated into IAF. The negotiation between India and Qatar is ongoing to reach a conclusion on cost and compatibility.
• 83 No of Tejas Mark-1A- The Indian Air Force has already ordered 83 indigenous Tejas Mark-1A fighter jets from HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, India). The Tejas Mark-1A, with modern radar, upgraded avionics and weapon carrying abilities, basically, an improved variant of the Tejas LCA, is expected to significantly enhance the IAF’s operational capabilities. However, production is progressing slowly due to several constraints. One of the major issues with the Tejas Mark-1A is the engine, the U.S.-made GE-F-404 engine. The U.S. has been delaying the delivery of these engines, which are integral to the Tejas Mark-1A fighters. This issue needs to be resolved quickly and as a priority by India.

“We are working with our partner HAL and suppliers to resolve constraints and deliver F404-IN20 engines for the LCA Mk1 program”

General Electric, U.S.A

• 114 MRFA Program (Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft)- The Indian Government and the Indian Air Force are working on a program that includes a strategy to procure 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft through a global tender. India will most likely evaluate bids from Rafale, Boeing F-15EX, F/A-18 Super Hornet, SAAB Gripen, and Eurofighter Typhoon. The challenge here is the time schedule. It is expected that the MRFA Program will certainly have a “Make in India” feature in collaboration with Indian companies to ensure the earliest delivery of these fighters to the IAF. Still, the best probable first delivery is tentatively expected to be in 2028-29.
• Advanced & Upgraded Tejas MK2 Variant- The development of a more advanced and upgraded Tejas MK2 variant is on the cards. The preliminary design studies have been completed by India, and India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has already approved an initial budget of USD 1.2 billion in 2023 to develop a prototype and conduct flight testing. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) plans to make this Tejas MK2 variant available for operation by 2028. It will be a Medium Weight Fighter (MWF). India plans to use around 99 F404 GE engines (95-100 kN) for the first batch of Tejas MK2 MWF, and the remaining engines will be manufactured indigenously in India through a Transfer of Technology (TOT) arrangement.

Sukhoi Su-30 MKI, MiG-29 and Upgraded MIRAGE 2000- The Operating Backbone of Indian Air Force

Currently, the IAF is operating 259 Sukhoi Su-30 MKI, which is the big boy of the force. It is an all-weather multirole Russian fighter and forms the backbone of the Indian Air Force.

The IAF also has in its arsenal 59 MiG-29 multirole fighters, including MiG-29 jets that operate on the Indian aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya.

The hero of the Indian surgical strike on terrorist locations in Balakot, Pakistan, is the Mirage-2000 fighter jet. The IAF loves using its 47 French Mirage-2000 fighter jets. This fighter is a multirole combat aircraft and is versatile for different types of battle & reconnaissance missions.

 

The AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) Program:

AMCA (Fifth Generation Fighter Jet Project of India) has been granted with the much-awaited CCS (Cabinet Committee on Security) approval on March 7th, 2024. The CCS has accepted the expenditure of INR 15,000 Crores (USD 1813 Million) towards manufacturing, testing, and authentication of 05 AMCA Prototypes in a span of 05 Years.

The AMCA will feature an internal weapons bay to carry missiles & stealth-guided munitions. The plan also includes a possible provision for directed energy weapon (DEW) fitment into the jet. India will produce 40 AMCA Mark-I jets in Phase-1, fitted with GE F-414 Engines. As part of Phase-II, India will manufacture 150 Mark-II jets, for which a suitable engine is yet to be identified or designed by India.

The Indian Government and the Indian Air Force will have to go through an arduous journey until 2029 that involves innovations to tackle a two-front attack, hard training, detailed maintenance, and guiding above procurement strategies to become a 42 Squadron air force by 2029.

Expediting additional Rafale fighters, pushing for the MRFA program, and Tejas MK1 deliveries, and accelerating the AMCA program while keeping the existing fleet battle-ready is going to be a strenuous phase of 5-6 years and extremely important. Hopefully, this period will pass without any severe escalation or conflict for India requiring a full-fledged air force action.

India will have to make some stop-gap arrangements, such as leasing fighter jets (F-16 or SAAB Gripen), buying used fighter jets (Mirage 2000 from Qatar), and implementing an extremely detailed maintenance program before the above strategy, which combines indigenous and foreign procurement, kicks in and starts delivering jets to the Indian Air Force from 2028-29 period.