“Why the Russia and North Korea Defense Deal is Significant” is an emerging question that relates to a complex shift in global politics. In the immediate future, this alliance has serious implications for South Korea & Ukraine. However, in a broader context, it has frightening prospects for the global stability.

Let’s delve into the details & learn the consequences of this partnership.

Apart from the unusual gifts like limousines and hunting dogs exchanged between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, the defense deal between Russia and North Korea has more significant global consequence. This agreement, involving the exchange of weapons, military technology, and strategic support, is set to influence ongoing & future wars and reshape the current world order profoundly.

Components of the Deal:

Key Components of the deal can be classified into 3 major area.

Direct Military Support:

An already bustling trend of supply of military hardware including the supply of missiles by North Korea to Russia to help in Ukraine invasion, got a new height through this defense deal. North Korea is providing Russia with significant quantities of ammunition and weaponry, including millions of rounds of artillery shells and multiple rocket launchers. This support is crucial for Russia’s ongoing military operations, particularly in Ukraine​.

But the frightening part of the deal is an apparent restoration of 1961 treaty between Soviet Russia & North Korea that accommodated a pledge that either nation would intervene if the other comes under attack. As per media reports in North Korea, this provision requires both the nations are obliged to deploy all means at their disposal without delay to provide military & other assistance, in the event of one of the countries gets attacked.

“North Korea and Russia have completely restored their Cold War-era military alliance, The agreement echoes the language of 1961 treaty”- Cheong Seong Chang, an analyst at South Korea’s Sejong Institute

Advanced Technological Exchange:

North Korea, already a nuclear-armed state, has been hindered primarily by its lack of advanced technology. This defense deal with Russia is expected to bridge that gap, granting North Korea window of advanced military technologies, including fighter aircraft, ballistic missile production materials, and armored vehicles.

The timing is particularly advantageous for North Korea, as Russia’s ongoing war has created a significant demand for artillery shells and ballistic missiles. North Korea is already contributing to Russia’s military needs by supplying artillery shells, joining Iran, which has reportedly provided Fateh missiles to Russia. This agreement opens up immense opportunities for North Korea to enhance its military capabilities significantly.

Space & Cyber Co-operation:

Russia has committed to assisting North Korea in its space program, particularly in satellite development. In September 2023, when Kim visited a space facility in Russia along with Putin, Russian President informed the reporters that Russia will help North Korea to build high tech satellites and bolster space cooperation. The promise had much significance, because it came after failure of North Korean scientists to launch a spy satellite into orbit.

This cooperation will help North Korea advance its surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. Additionally, there is potential for collaboration in cyber warfare, leveraging both countries’ strengths in this domain.

THE IMPLICATIONS:

Threat to South Korea

If we analyze, this is a direct challenge to the presence & commitment of US forces in South Korea. As a symbolic gesture of support to South Korea & apparently a strong response to this deal, US Navy has deployed the mighty aircraft carrier “The USS Theodore Roosevelt” at Busan Naval Base, South Korea for Joint Drills. South Korea also summoned Russian ambassador & informed him of their strong displeasure with respect to this defense deal.

South Korea & North Korea are technically still at war, because the Korean war paused due to a armistice agreement in 1953. However, the treaty was not a permanent peace treaty between the nations. This treaty is just a military negotiation document and not a formally signed agreement between the nations. Hence any miscalculations in the region will lead to a fragile situation.

“The White House is very concerned about this burgeoning partnership, which is moving quite rapidly, we’re now sharing more intelligence, we’re aligning our policies better, and we’re coordinating policy action to try to combat the most problematic dimensions of this cooperation. And that effort is really moving fast and furious”. – Mira Rapp Hooper, Top Advisor to President Biden on Security and a Political Scientist in USA

The Japan Angle:

Japan has raised alarm over the defense cooperation and specifically pointed out the military technology cooperation. With a belligerent China, hostile North Korea armed with advanced technology, will raise the temperature in East Asia. Along with South Korea, Japan is also amid a real, evolving security situation.

“Seriously concerned that Russian President Putin did not rule out military technology co-operation with North Korea” in consideration of “the security environment surrounding our country and region”. –  Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi

Japan hosts over 50,000 U.S. military personnel, and if Donald Trump is re-elected as US President, Japan has significant concerns about regional dynamics. Japan has been gradually shifting away from its pacifist stance, revising arms trade rules with countries from which it receives licensing permits. As part of this shift, Japan is supplying U.S.-manufactured Patriot missiles to help replenish the U.S. arsenal, which is actively supporting Ukraine.

China in Dilemma:

The dragon is not actually sleeping. It has intensified its efforts to consolidate its presence in the South China Sea, actively engaging in confrontations with Taiwan and conducting regular, high-intensity military drills in the region. China is also pursuing aggressive diplomacy and encroaching into Japanese waters, particularly over disputed territories such as the Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu in China and Tiaoyutai in Taiwan). This area remains a critical geopolitical flashpoint.

In this volatile context, the military deal between Russia and North Korea presents a dilemma for China. It appears that China is losing significant influence over North Korea and, consequently, its leverage with Russia. The emerging Russia-North Korea-Iran axis strengthens while China’s sphere of influence seems to diminish.

“It’s actually reducing the leverage that China has over North Korea and over Russia,” – Allison Hooker, Senior vice president at American Global Strategies

This development raises crucial questions about the future geopolitical landscape. How will China respond to this shift in alliances? Will this new dynamic undermine the effectiveness of the Russia-North Korea deal, or will it further erode China’s influence in the region? The coming months will be crucial in revealing the outcomes of these geopolitical maneuvers.

Challenges to the World Order:

This deal marks a significant shift in global alliances. As Russia and North Korea draw closer, the balance of power in international relations could be altered. This partnership may encourage other nations to reevaluate their alliances and strategies, potentially leading to a more multipolar world order where traditional Western dominance is challenged.

The United States and its allies face a complex challenge in responding to this new alliance. Strengthening military cooperation with allies such as South Korea and Japan will be crucial, as will enhancing diplomatic efforts to counterbalance the influence of Russia and North Korea. The U.S. may also need to reconsider its approach to sanctions and international diplomacy to address the evolving geopolitical landscape​.

Inference:

The Russia-North Korea military deal is an extremely significant development with long-term, deep implications for global security, East Asia stability, turbulence in South China Sea, events in Indian Ocean and the existing world order. The probability for future wars increases, and the efficacy of international sanctions is questionable. Particularly for the United States and its allies, adapting to this new normal will require strategic foresight, fortified alliances, and innovative approaches like bonding with India, strengthening Australia ties, watching over Pakistan, to maintaining stability and security in an increasingly multipolar world.

USA & allies must work diplomatically to prevent escalations in Indian Ocean, South China Sea and improve deterrence inside South Korea & Japan to counter this evolving threat to world-order.