Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, in a shocking turn of events, was assassinated in Tehran. The Israeli Mossad is alleged to have carried out the assassination, leading to increased tensions and sparking concerns about a potential war between Israel and Iran.

The Assassination and Its Immediate Aftermath

The assassination was executed with an explosive device planted in Haniyeh’s bedroom at the Iranian government official guest. As per emerging information, a bomb that exploded in Ismail Haniyeh’s bedroom in an official guesthouse in Iran, was detonated by remote control, around 2 AM at night, when Ismail Haniyeh was taking rest along with a bodyguard. The explosive device was smuggled into Iran months ago and installed in the room, because Ismail Haniyeh was known to stay in the same guest house whenever he visited Tehran. He had arrived in Tehran and attended the presidential inauguration ceremony. His bodyguard also is believed to be dead in this incident.

The incident has led to strong reactions, with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowing to avenge Haniyeh’s death.

Who is Ismail Haniyeh?

Ismail Haniyeh was a Palestinian Political leader & a leader of Hamas, a militant body operating in Gaza strip since 2007. Ismail Haniyeh is also Ex-Prime Minister of Palestine. He was seen as a pragmatic, moderate, yet prominent leader of Hamas, in which he was elected as Head of Political Bureau. During his tenure as Head of Hamas Political Bureau, Hamas had attacked Israel in October 2023 & abducted hundreds of Israel civilians, as a brutal show of aggression. Haniyeh had relocated from Gaza strip to Qatar. Allegedly, Israeli Mossad launched an operation & assassinated him when he was in Tehran on 31^st July 2024.

The Potential for War:

The assassination of an important Hamas political figure such as Ismail Haniyeh could indeed escalate tensions between Israel and Iran. The incident has already led to strong reactions, with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowing to avenge Haniyeh’s Killing. This has raised concerns about the possibility of a short-term war or repetition of retaliation like Iran’s reactions few months ago, when they launched hundreds of Missiles into Israel in response to destruction of Iran Consulate in Syria by Israel air strike.

However, predicting the exact outcomes in international relations can be complex and uncertain, as they depend on a multitude of factors. The responses of other countries, internal politics, historical contexts, and many other elements can influence the course of events.

The Geopolitical Impact

The assassination and the likely conflict between Israel and Iran could have significant geopolitical implications. The Middle East is a region of strategic pivot, and any conflict could derange global oil supplies and have widespread economic ramifications.

Moreover, the situation could further complicate relations between the U.S. and Russia. Both countries have strategic interests in the Middle East and have historically supported different sides in regional conflicts. The U.S. is a close ally of Israel, while Russia has ties with Iran. Relationship between Iran and Russia has strengthened to greater dimensions in recent months. Iran has supported Russia by supplying missiles for their war in Ukraine. Russia and Iran are also in talks for procurement of advanced fighter jets by Iran from Russia.

U.S has been a friend for Israel for decades and the upcoming presidential election in U.S. makes the timing very fragile. Joe Biden has eliminated himself from the U.S. Presidential election. If Donald Trump comes back, he will turn into a force multiplier for Netanyahu.

Can India foster peace in this tense situation?

India can potentially act as a mediator in fostering peace between Israel and Iran by leveraging its unique position and good relationships with both countries. India must use economic ties with both Israel and Iran to make ground for peace-talks, which can be further bolstered by India’s strong regional influence in Arab gulf states and good relations with Russia and U.S.A. Russia and U.S.A both may welcome India to come in & at least, convince Iran & Israel to avoid action-reaction spiral for now. It is true that India walks on a thin line of balance when it comes to Iran and Israel.

India has never declared Hamas a terror organization, supports a two-state solution. However, at the same time, India shares a very close relation with Israel when it comes to security, defense or art. India is a great trade partner to Iran and enjoys strategic ties in ports, oil & gas business.

Till now, India, has maintained a strategic silence on this incident. Indian Minister Nitin Gadkari attended the presidential inauguration in Tehran, where Ismail Haniyeh was also present. At the same time, it is true that India was one of the first nation to condemn the terror attack by Hamas in October 2023. It is also important to note that India was biggest client for Israel in 2022 in terms of sales of military equipment. After Russia, Israel is 2^nd biggest supplier of military equipment to Indian forces, nearly 42% of equipment.

Yes, the balance is thin, but the opportunity for India is big. India must latch on to the opportunity to foster peace between Iran & Israel and strengthen its credentials as peace maker & a strong candidate to be a permanent member in UNSC.

The Ambiguous Reactions of the U.S. and Russia

The U.S. and Russia have so far reacted ambiguously to the assassination. This could be due to the complex and sensitive nature of the situation. Both countries likely want to avoid escalating tensions further, but they also must consider their strategic interests and alliances.

While the situation following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh is serious, it doesn’t automatically mean that a war will break out. Diplomatic efforts, negotiations, and international pressure are expected to play a role in moderating the situation.

Few Months ago, three of Ismail Haniyeh’s sons and two of his grandchildren were killed in Gaza in an Israeli strike on a car they were traveling in. The Israeli military said it targeted the car on April 11 and confirmed that Ismail Haniyeh’s sons were “military operatives” who were planning attacks. Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh serves as a reminder of the volatility of the Middle East and the potential for sudden escalations of conflict. It underscores the need for continued diplomatic efforts to promote peace and stability in the region.

Peace-Talk Mediation by Qatar derailed:

The ongoing peace talks initiated by Qatar, related to Israeli military offensive in Gaza strip, are now uncertain. The Prime Minister of Qatar has condemned the assassination while raising lack of confidence in Israeli intent in peace-talks.

“Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners,”

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Prime Minister, Qatar

But the bright side is that Israel may present this assassination as a strong punishment inflicted on Palestine and can use the window as an exit ladder to reduce the military operations on its own in Gaza.

However, this assumption of peace will require Iran to exercise restraint and not respond immediately to this assassination. But Current situation is proving otherwise. Iran and Proxies are indicating a probable military response to Israel, a punishment to the assassins, for killing their friend inside their home.

Flight Cancellations:

Many airlines have reportedly cancelled their flights to Tel Aviv as a safety measure, because the situation stands tense, indicating an imminent attack on Israel. United airlines (USA), Indian airlines (India), Delta, Brussels airline, Austrian airlines, among many, have cancelled flights to Israel. Flydubai have also cancelled or diverted some of their flights.

The cancellations have troubled thousands of passengers, while Israel braces itself for a possible retaliation from Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah together.

The upcoming hours and days will reveal on the nature of retaliation from Iran. Will it be a bunch of rockets, drones and ballistic missiles like the previous attack, or Iran will step up & attack any high value targets? The world looks at Tehran and Tel-aviv anxiously.