ECI (Election Commission of India) announced on Saturday that its general elections, spanning six weeks, will commence from 19^th April 2024.

In the world’s largest democracy, voting will take place in seven phases, with polling held at different times in various states. The results will be announced on June 4. More than 970 million voters – over 10% of the world’s population – will elect 543 members for the lower house. This will determine the composition of the Parliament for a five-year term.

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, who is seeking a third consecutive term, is facing a ideological challenge as the Indian National Congress, with the support of more than two dozen regional parties, is presenting an opposition alliance, however, the opposition coalition appears fractured & weak, with political fluctuations and internal differences taking center-stage.

Each phase of the election will be conducted in a single day, during which multiple constituencies – spread across various states, highly populated cities, and remote villages – will cast their votes. Such massive scale of voting requires the government to deploy thousands of soldiers to prevent possible violence and ensure the safe transportation of election officials and electronic voting machines.

Schedule of General Election 2024:

 

Political Determinants that may shape the Verdict of People:

1. Electoral Bond

The recent judgement by Hon. Supreme Court of India to Strike Down the provision of Electoral Bonds brought by Central Govt., while citing it unconstitutional, has steamrolled among Indian youth. The fact that Government is put into this quandary by the apex court itself & not by any opposition party, becomes a driving wedge triggering intellect-mood among the educated & conscious voters. It is difficult to say how big this factor turns out, if not the showstopper. But certainly, this is a factor, which may not work in support of the ruling party.

2. Parties not in any alliance

Nearly 20 Politically Parties are non-aligned to any alliances. They will fight the election on their own without any seat-sharing among any alliance partners. Winning Members of Parliament from these parties will drive their weight post announcement of results, posing a formidable factor.

3. Scientific Marvels in last 2 Years

Under the current Central Government, India has achieved a series of scientific marvels like Successful Moon Landing, Agni-V MIRV Capable Nuclear Missile Test, Anti-Satellite Missile Test, Indigenous COVID Vaccine, Aditya-L1 Mission to Study the Sun, continued progress in Indigenous Fighter Jet Program etc, to name a few. This may likely reinforce the campaign by the ruling party to some extent.

4. National Security & Bravery of Indian Forces

National Security & the bravery of Indian forces will push the Govt. agenda very strongly to the voters. The voters will definitely be positively convinced on India’s newfound willingness to respond militarily to cross-border terror acts, India looking beyond Pakistan in its security strategy, resolute stand against Chinese aggressions at Ladakh or Indian Independent Foreign & Security Policy in the world forums.

5. Citizenship Law- The CAA

The CAA Law was hurriedly implemented by Central Government, only a week before announcement of schedule of election by ECI. This may not be a green contributor to the seemingly stable popularity of the Modi Government. The law stood dormant for a more than 2 years, before being enforced instantly in a hurry. The provisions in the law have had its own share of criticism from the Muslim minorities. Rightly or wrongly, it will surely play through the minds of minority voters.

6. Curious Case of Cast Census and OBC (Other Backward Caste) Voters

BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) consistently increased its vote shares from OBCs over last 2 decades & this has played as a remarkable metric in growth of ruling party. BJP, to a large extent, has dissolved the distress of backward class voters into main stream Hindutva, a religion-based vote source.

INC-Indian National Congress pushed for the pending caste census to be conducted to consolidate their alliance with like-minded political parties and spread the idea that a caste census will help the OBCs, Dalits, tribal communities to gain better benefits.

However, BJP astutely did not oppose the idea of caste census openly & at the same time formed an over-night alliance with JD(U), who had just conducted a caste census in the state of Bihar, causing anxieties to BJP. But, finally, JD(U) joining BJP, made a dent in INC (Indian National Congress) led coalition & their attempt to debate on caste census.

It is obvious that caste census & the ideology alongside it will effectively counter BJP’s Hindutva Ideology, if not against the development ideology. Hence, BJP carried out a master stroke in Bihar by forming alliance with JD(U). With JD(U) Supremo Nitish Kumar aligning to BJP Led NDA (National Democratic Alliance), the debate on caste census has gone into hibernation.

It now remains an interesting area of lesson & how it will influence the voters. Mostly, the ruling party will continue to gain confidence from OBC Voters.

7. India losing in Maldives in terms of foreign policy

India’s increasingly injured relationship with a Pro-China regime in Maldives has been making headlines. It is bursting on the face of election that Maldives Government is aligning more & more towards China & encouraging Indian Diaspora to leave Maldives. Though, strategically, India has unlocked an act of genius by inaugurating INS Jatayu base at Minicoy Island, in the Indian Ocean, located adjacent to the busiest shipping route from Red Seas to East Asia. This base will act as an ear & eye for Indian Navy to monitor Chinese navigations in the Indian Ocean.

However, Maldives turning from a friend to foe, has exploded on the face of Indian Foreign Policy. The Saga of India-Maldives degradation of friendliness will induce a blink in the minds of voters, probably.

8. India-Canada Spy Killing Chapter

Canadian PM, Justin Trudeau Openly criticized Indian Govt. on being involved in killing of Mr. Nijjar (An Indian Origin Canadian Citizen). India handled the issues forcefully & instructed Canada to downsize their consulate strength in India. India very strongly pushed back by terming the allegation as “Politically Motivated”.

Somehow, the whole matter is expected to help the BJP for standing up to Canada & pushing back the Indian perspective in a steadfast manner. Indians will probably be supportive to the muscular diplomacy shown by central government in this matter.

9. Unemployment & Price Rise and no relaxation in tax slabs

Unemployment percentage in India is growing consistently.

The percentage of unemployment in India has grown from a 5.44% in 2014 to 8% in 2023. This is a significant crack in the Modi Guarantee that is seemingly youth friendly, and completely opposite to BJP’s passionate pre-poll promise to increase the number of jobs. The unemployed or under-paid employees, will take this factor into consideration while voting.

Though the inflation was at a balanced 5.69% in 2023, thanks to continued strategic monitoring by Reserve Bank of India, the rise of prices in various commodities is a red indicator for ruling party. Perhaps, this being a daily influencer to the common man, will work for opposition rallies. The prices of fuels, energy has grown & affected the daily life of citizen continuously.

The middle-class taxpayer has not received any relaxation in the tax slabs in last 2 decades, may add to the causes.

10. Ram Mandir

Ram Lalla has returned to Ayodhya again & a massive temple for Ram Lalla stands in Ayodhya. The consecration of Ram Mandir was a spectacle for India & massive trend in internet & among the Hindu Community. The success of Ram Mandir is a direct compliment to the BJP’s previous promise in their election manifesto to build a Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. This will not only favorably play to BJP interest in General Election 2024, but also in the future assembly election in the state of Uttar Pradesh massively.

11. Abrogation of Article 370

The abrogation of Article 370 may have caused a continued debate all over the countries & the political parties in Jammu & Kashmir. But the abrogation has proved the strong determination of the ruling party to put an end to a 70+ years old temporary provision in the constitution. This necessary shift of policy could never have been possible by any coalition government & a strong majority party like BJP made it possible.

Indians wholeheartedly celebrated & supported the decision, which may be a positive contributor to BJP gaining electoral benefits out of it.

12. Nyay Guarantee by Indian National Congress

Congress carried out a country wide Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, promising “Nyaya Guarantee”, i.e. to address the grievances from all layers of society. The yatra entailed debates over justice for youth, farmers, women, advocates, laborer, and introduction of participatory justice in the country. INC promises to pay INR 1 Lac (i.e. 1208 USD) every year to poor women to improve their finances, to introduce Adhikaar Maitri, an initiative to grow local platform of justice for women in remote villages, Adivasi Sankalp to protect rights of tribes, Bhagidaari Nyay and a few more potential promises to the common man of India.

The potential in Nyay guarantee against the popular Modi Guarantee of development, remains to be seen on 4th June 2024.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has termed the upcoming election as the biggest festival of democracy & is confident of BJP winning more than 400 seats in the general election, way more than the eligibility of 2/3^rd seats out of 543 seats, to form a government. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has termed the upcoming election as a battle of ideologies & senior congress leader Mr. Sashi Tharoor stated that congress ideological stance is in favor of an inclusive India & party only needs to prepare a progressive economic policy to end the ongoing unacceptable inequality.

The uneasy calm before the political battle is ongoing, India is waiting to vibrate with political celebrations, rallies, campaigns, voting, counting & formation of a new government that will shape India for another 5 years.

Clock of the largest democracy has started ticking.