Europe without the U.S. is a necessary pain for Europe in the current geopolitical reality, and finally, Europe has come together to acknowledge it. When President Donald Trump recently excluded the European Union and Ukraine, the victim country itself, from the so-called peace talks in Riyadh, it was a watershed moment—a sharp wake-up call for the European nations, especially France, Germany, the U.K., Poland, Italy, Nordic nations, and the Baltic States. This was soon followed by an extremely damaging tariff war unleashed by the U.S. under President Trump, an approach that does not show any leniency even to ally countries. On Thursday, 27 European leaders signed an agreement to increase the defense budget by additional 1.5% of GDP, which is a significant transformation after decades of reluctance to do so. Now they probably realize how big a threat Russia is and how damaging the change in American policy is.

NATO is poised to weaken or transform. The interesting truth is, if Europe must step up its own defense budget, why do they need the U.S.? An even more important question is, can Europe really step up to the occasion? And the biggest question is, where is the U.S. Foreign policy leading to?

Let’s analyze.

ReArm Europe;

“ReArm Europe” plan has unfolded on Thursday in a special meeting attended by European leaders, a plan that has been signed by 27 nations. Based on this plan, EU targets to mobilize €800bn over the next 4 years, that will be a result of increase in defense budget by member states.

The Commission plans to invoke the national escape clause in the Stability and Growth Pact, which could potentially release €650 billion over the next four years, if defense spending increases by an average of 1.5% of GDP.

Another significant measure is a €150 billion loan scheme designed to assist Member States in investing in essential military capabilities. This initiative will promote the joint procurement of critical systems such as air and missile defense, artillery, drones, cyber defense, and military mobility, thereby reducing costs and enhancing interoperability.

The plan also involves reallocating EU budget funds to support defense-related investments. The Commission will introduce new incentives for Member States to utilize cohesion policy funds for military spending, thereby strengthening defense infrastructure and industry.

Additionally, the EU aims to attract private capital by accelerating financial initiatives like the Savings and Investment Union and leveraging the European Investment Bank. These measures will encourage private sector participation in building a robust European defense sector.

Skyshield- European led Air Protection of Kiev and Western Ukraine Sky:

According to a plan devised by military experts in Europe, a European air force consisting of 120 fighter jets could be deployed to protect the skies over Kyiv and western Ukraine from Russian missile & drone attacks, without necessarily escalating the conflict with Moscow.

Proponents of Sky Shield argue that it would be a European-led air protection zone, operating independently from NATO, to prevent Russian cruise missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. This initiative could potentially function as part of the “truce in the sky” proposed by Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, this week.

Europe has begun to finalize a plan that, instead of deploying a few thousand soldiers on Ukrainian ground, will be multiple times more effective and helpful to Ukraine by first protecting its nuclear power plants, power infrastructure, and important cities in Western Ukraine like Lviv and Odesa. This will enable Ukraine to focus on the front lines in Eastern Ukraine to defend against the Russian invasion and relentless attacks.

Can Europe really step up to the occasion?

Can Europe really step up to the occasion? Well, it must, and it has started to strategize.

Europe has all the necessary elements to collectively defend against any future threats from Russia. France possesses its own nuclear weapons, unlike the U.K., which leases them from the U.S. Germany stands as the most economically powerful nation in Europe, and both France and Germany have credible weapon manufacturing infrastructures.

The expansion of the French Nuclear Protection Umbrella is the most formidable deterrent, now with even more reasons to extend across all of Europe. Germany must overcome internal political disagreements and partner with France to extend the French nuclear deterrent throughout Europe. This is a language Russia understands—the language of power.

Russia has responded fiercely to the Speech by French President Emanuel Macron that describes Russia as a threat to entire Europe and urgent need to consolidate European defense without depending on the U.S.

 This is, of course, a threat against Russia. Unlike their predecessors, who also wanted to fight against Russia, Napoleon, Hitler, Mr. Macron does not act very gracefully

Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister, Russia

What are the Challenges for “ReArm Europe”?

Europe has been experiencing high inflation in recent years, with a notable rate of 2.5% in January, which will undoubtedly impact the effectiveness of the “ReArm Europe” initiative. Three major factors have disrupted Europe’s economy: the painful post-Covid recovery, the increase in energy costs, and supply chain disruptions since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Adding to these challenges is Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff diplomacy, which has placed significant pressure on Europe’s economy.

The second big challenge is achieving consensus among all European member countries. In many instances, it has been difficult for the EU to build consensus on strategies related to security and defense, especially matters concerning Ukraine. Members like Hungary and Bulgaria have been difficult to convince. Therefore, how the EU will manage to fully implement ReArm Europe or the Skyshield effectively is a question that can be answered and resolved through stronger diplomacy by France, Germany, and the U.K.

Despite these challenges, the ‘ReArm Europe’ and ‘Skyshield’ plan represents a necessary pain for Europe. In an increasingly uncertain world, the ability to independently safeguard its security is profound. The initiative reflects Europe’s intention to take control of its destiny and assert its role as a global power.

Where is the U.S. Foreign policy leading to?

Trump’s bullying diplomacy has led to a seismic shift in international affairs, with the U.S. abandoning its role as a leader of the free world and a defender of democracies, while aligning more with autocracies like Russia. This will have long-lasting repercussions on the established world order and, at the same time, damage the image of the U.S. across the globe.

If the President of a country like the United States lacks diplomatic tactfulness and engages in public spats with leaders of friendly countries, it will undermine global stability and U.S. influence in the world. There will be potentially negative impacts in the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea, the Indo-Pacific, and the African zone, and most importantly, on the Americans. Only time will tell how future U.S. presidents and administrations will handle the situations when they take charge and how they will reverse the adverse situations that are yet to unfold.

The €800 billion ‘ReArm Europe‘ and ‘Skyshield’ initiative is a landmark plan that underscores Europe’s commitment to its security and independence. While the course ahead is fraught with challenges, the initiative holds the promise of a stronger, more resilient Europe. As the plan unfolds, it will be crucial for European leaders to manage the complexities with finance and foresight, ensuring that Europe emerges stronger and more united than ever before.