The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran in West Asia is slowly entering a dangerous new phase, as Iran threatens to unleash a more severe escalation across the Middle East, including the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, if the U.S. goes ahead with an invasion of Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil export hub. This could quickly evolve into a new maritime war front and further worsen the global energy crisis.
The threat, published by the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency and also highlighted by Iranian and international media outlets, comes amid an ongoing war in which the US and Israel are attacking Iranian targets & Iran’s counter attacks on US interests; This sequence also includes a major US air strike on Kharg Island on March 13, 2026, which destroyed more than 90 military targets while causing no damage to oil-related infrastructure. As per reports, U.S. is weighing their options to invade Kharg Island and take control of this major oil export hub and destroy the military assets therein.
Kharg Island and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Kharg Island, located about 30 kilometers off Iran’s Persian Gulf coast, handles about 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it Iran’s most important energy hub. Any action against the island would have a direct impact on Iran’s revenues and its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict.
Iran’s partial control of the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks has driven Brent crude oil prices above USD 103 per barrel. Oil and gas transit through the strait has faced significant disruption, causing major strain on supply chains reliant on this chokepoint. Despite the escalating tension, the U.S. Navy currently appears to lack a definitive strategic approach to ensuring the free flow of maritime navigation through the strait.
Reports suggest that the Trump administration is considering seizing or siege of Kharg Island to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. It is an important sea route, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil is traded. During this conflict, Iran has significantly disrupted or completely closed the movement of ships in this strait. For this reason, the US is now considering taking even more drastic measures, such as deploying airborne troops from units like the 82nd Airborne.
The overall idea is to deny Iran’s capabilities to use those islands. A lot can come at you from mines and missiles and cruise missiles, but a lot of that has been eliminated already or significantly degraded. So, the mission is absolutely executable. The real question is how long will it take to do it and when can flow be restored.
Kevin Donegan, retired vice admiral and former Commander of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet
Meanwhile, Iran is heavily strengthening Kharg Island with heavier troop deployments, mines, MANPADS (man‑portable air‑defense systems), and other defensive weapons. In anticipation of a possible U.S. ground assault, Iran is reportedly creating what analysts describe as “death traps.” Experts warn that any attempt to seize the island could result in significant losses of life and equipment for American forces, given the island’s utter proximity to the Iranian mainland and its unshielded geography.
However, Iran has warned that if ground action is attempted, restraint will not be exercised. Iran has directly addressed the people of the U.S. not to send their sons to the hell.
“Don’t send your children to hell with the deceit of Netanyahu and Trump. The invading soldiers will be deeply drowned and disappear in the million-strong sea of the Iranian nation”.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran
That is enough to seize a small target for a period of time. You’ve got to understand, even the 82nd Airborne Division, it’s an immediate reaction force to provide very quick reaction on the ground but only in advance of something bigger coming in behind that
Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis
Why Bab‑el‑Mandeb Matters?
The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and serves as the southern gateway to the Suez Canal route. About 10–12% of the world’s maritime trade, including large volumes of Oil, LNG and Container traffic between Asia and Europe, passes through the strait.
Any blockage or war escalation engulfing Bab-el-Mandeb would force ships to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to journeys and significantly increasing shipping costs, something that has been seen before during security crises in the Red Sea.
Yemen’s Iran‑Backed Houthis Operate Near Bab-el‑Mandeb
Iran’s warning is taken seriously in part because Bab-al-Mandeb is adjacent to Yemen, where the Iran-backed Houthi movement is active. This enables Iran to open a new war front in the Bab-el-Mandeb, the narrow passage between Yemen and Djibouti, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and ultimately to the Suez Canal.
The Houthis have demonstrated these capabilities in the past:
- Target commercial ships
- Launching anti-ship missiles and drones
- Disrupting traffic in the Red Sea during 2023–24
If the US attacks Kharg Islands to pressure Iran into giving up its control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would respond by disrupting the Bab-el-Mandeb, resulting in a double disruption of the energy supply chain.
From Hormuz to Bab-el‑Mandeb: Iran’s Chokepoint Strategy- As powerful as an Atom Bomb
Analysts have pointed out parallels between Iran’s signaling on Bab-el-Mandeb and its past actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz; About 20% of global oil and LNG trade typically passes through the strait. Iran first issued warnings, then imposed selective sanctions, and eventually imposed de facto limits on US-bound traffic.
Iran has mastered the art of making use of asymmetric influence in the maritime domain, turning narrow waterways in the Strait of Hormuz into a powerful weapon, which is not less than an atom bomb. Strait of Hormuz is world’s major oil transit point, through which approximately 20% of global petroleum and large quantities of LNG flow daily.
By restricting shipping, imposing selective tariffs, and deploying mines, fast‑attack boats, cruise missiles and drones, Iran has already disrupted maritime traffic in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks, demonstrating how it could cripple the global energy economy, without even owning a nuclear weapon.
A similar mix of waterway restrictions and military escalation in the Bab-el‑Mandeb Strait would prove catastrophic for the global energy supply chain, sending shockwaves worldwide, especially as Ukraine simultaneously attacks on Russia’s facilities to export oil and gas on another war front.
Iran’s allied group, the Houthis, had previously demonstrated their ability to threaten this waterway during the Gaza war; During that time, the Houthis had been attacking Israeli ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for more than two years. The Houthi rebel group has already warned that if the Iranian regime needs help in a war with the US and Israel, they will help Iran seize the 20-mile-wide strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, a move that would disrupt traffic through the Red Sea, where $1 trillion of goods pass through each year.
“If the enemy wants to take action on land in the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our lands or to inflict costs on Iran with naval movements in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, We will open other fronts for them as a surprise so that their action will not only be of no benefit to them but will also double their costs”
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran
Enemies were preparing to seize one of Iran’s islands, possibly Kharg, with support from a regional country. Our forces are monitoring all enemy movements, and if they take any step, all vital infrastructure of that regional state will be targeted with continuous, relentless attacks.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is preparing to send 3,000 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Infantry Division to the Middle East, where they would join around 2,500 Marines already deployed to strengthen forces near Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz poses a threat to oil exports, while the Bab-el-Mandeb threatens approximately 10–12% of the world’s seaborne oil transport and vital trade routes to Europe via the Suez Canal.
Iran aims to inflict significant economic costs on its adversaries, deter ground incursions, and complicate U.S. and allied naval operations across two separate regions by exploiting geography and its ally networks to build a layered strategic deterrence.
As the possibility of a possible US ground attack on Kharg Island looms, Iran’s open threat to activate the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait signals a deliberate and dangerous shift in the conflict. If this ‘dual-chokepoint’ pressure materializes, the consequences for global energy markets, shipping costs and inflation could prove severe and long-lasting.