Japan has been a torchbearer of pacifism and anti-war philosophy since the end of World War II, a stance deeply rooted in the devastation caused by the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. This policy is enshrined in the Japanese Constitution, particularly in the famous Article 9. Eighty years have passed. The dynamics of global affairs and regional security have rapidly transformed over the past few decades. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s resistance with U.S. support, and the arrival of a new U.S. president with a less supportive policy toward Ukraine have all been closely observed by Japan. Japan perceives threats from three authoritarian regimes—China, Russia, and North Korea—all of which are nuclear-armed. None of them are democracies, and all three prioritize force over diplomacy. Under the circumstances, Japan is undergoing a massive shift, Japan rearms. Let us understand.

In 2022, Japan launched a Defense Build-Up Program, accompanied by a sharp increase in budget allocation to 5.87 trillion yen. This initiative includes the development and production of stand-off capabilities such as surface-to-ship missiles, hyper-velocity gliding projectiles, and air-to-ship missiles. Additionally, it focuses on upgrading ground-based warning and control radars, enhancing modern interception capabilities, and, most importantly, establishing a counter-strike capability. The program also includes advancements in unmanned defense capabilities and cross-domain operational capabilities, particularly in space, electromagnetic, and cyber warfare, along with extensive modernization of command-and-control infrastructure.

In 2024, the defense budget beginning April 1 was up 9.4% to a record 8.7 trillion-yen, equivalent to $55.1 billion. The budget allocation reinforced the expenditure on developing Type 12 Anti-Ship Missiles, hyper-velocity gliding projectiles to protect the islands, production of submarine launched missiles.

 

Extensive funds are being earmarked for procuring F-35 Fighter Jets, Self-production of Tomahawk Cruise Missiles and Air-to-Surface Stand Off Missiles for the F-15 Fighter Jets. Japan has also started to work on procuring MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones & V-Bat drones which may operate from Japanese Ships.

“Japan is facing the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II.”

Japan Government’s 2024 iteration of its annual Defense of Japan white paper

“I think Japan recognizes and understands the seriousness of the threats it faces from China, North Korea and Russia. Ukraine really spurred Japanese awareness – figuring that Taiwan was next, with everything that would portend for Japan’s security.”

Grant Newsham, senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies

What do Japanese People Think while Japan Rearms?

In a 2024 opinion poll conducted by The Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network (FNN), 65% of respondents supported Japan developing enemy base strike capabilities. The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, appears to be moving steadfastly in that direction. In a survey by the same network, Prime Minister Kishida enjoyed a 69% approval rating. Additionally, nearly 74% of respondents supported imposing heavy sanctions on Russia. A majority of Japanese citizens seem to favor increasing the defense budget amid severe geopolitical tensions and growing Chinese aggression.

Threat from Nuclear Powered Authoritarian Regimes is a Catalyst to Japanese defense awareness

It is undeniable that the United States, one of Japan’s most stalwart allies, has long been advocating for a gradual, but progressive growth of Japan’s defense capabilities, including the establishment of a credible counter-strike force. However, Tokyo had never exhibited a sense of urgency in this regard, until the mounting threats from three authoritarian regimes began to cast an ominous shadow over its regional security. Japan has now come to the humbling realization that its long-standing reliance on Washington’s security umbrella can no longer be deemed sacrosanct.

China’s Growing Aggression

China’s military expansion, particularly in the South and East China Seas, poses a direct threat to Japan’s security. The dispute over the Senkaku Islands (claimed by China as Diaoyu) remains a major flashpoint. Beijing’s assertiveness increased naval incursions, and growing military cooperation with Russia have forced Japan to rethink its passive stance.

Russia’s Military Posture in the Pacific

While much of the world’s attention is on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s activities in the Pacific remain a serious concern for Japan. Russia has increased its military exercises near Japan’s northern territories, including the Kuril Islands—territory that Tokyo claims but Moscow controls.

North Korea’s Missile Provocations

North Korea’s missile tests, which frequently violate Japanese airspace, have heightened concerns in Tokyo. Pyongyang’s advancements in nuclear capabilities and its unpredictable leadership make Japan particularly vulnerable. In response, Japan is developing counterstrike capabilities, including acquiring Tomahawk cruise missiles from the U.S. and enhancing its missile defense systems.

What are the Defense Augmentations Planned by Japan?

Japan has committed to progressively doubling its defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027. Several major initiatives undertaken by Japan are expected to materialize on the ground within the next three years, including the following.

• Deployment of long-range cruise and counter-strike missiles in southern island of Kyushu, which is seen as an augmentation to counter-strike capabilities and secure Okinawa Island chain. These will include mostly U.S. made Tomahawk Missiles and Patriot Air defense missiles.
• Agreement with the U.S. to procure 400 Land attack Block V Tomahawk Missiles, in addition to further purchase of joint strike missiles (JSMs).
• The establishment of new military bases on islands near Taiwan, such as Yonaguni Island, is underway. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces have built a base on Yonaguni Island, which is extremely close to Taiwan. The site now houses radar installations and other defense assets.
• Japan is part of a tri-lateral arrangement involving the U.K. and Italy to design, develop & manufacture a 6^th Generation Fighter Jet (GCAP).
• Investment in AI Technology, Satellite Imagery & X Band Defense Communications
• Formation of 1^st & 2^nd Space Operation Squadron and Cyber Work Force
• Development of Electronic Warfare Aircraft in addition to 12 Numbers of F-35 Fighter Jets.
• Upgrades to F-15 Fighter Jets with Stand-Off Missiles, EW Features
• Demonstration of HPM (High Power Microwave Technology) and investment in further research
• Establishment of Training Facilities & Electromagnetic Capabilities.

Japan rearms and a series of upgradation & ambitious defense plans marks a significant departure from its post-war pacifist stance. While this shift is primarily defensive, it underscores Japan’s willingness to take a responsible role in global security, particularly in the South China Sea, to protect its islands and counter China’s aggression toward Taiwan and Japan.

The coming years will determine how this transformation shapes regional stability. Will Japan’s military buildup successfully deter aggression, or will it lead to further tensions in East Asia? One thing is clear: Japan is no longer content with relying solely on diplomacy, pathologically depend on the U.S.—it is preparing to defend itself in an increasingly volatile world. Time will say, if Japan can restore its glory once more and become a lethal military force in Asia.