Kathmandu has fallen. Nepal is burning amid GenZ Protests and has got into its most serious political crisis of decades. The movement, which began in protest against the government’s ban on 26 social media platforms including Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and X, soon turned into a nationwide rebellion. Mainly under the leadership of GenZ, this protest became violent, resulting in at least 30 people killed and more than 1,000 people were injured. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned on 9th September and Government buildings including Parliament, Supreme Court and Prime Minister’s residence were set on fire.

Why GenZ Protest happened: Beyond the Social Media Ban

Although the ban on social media was an immediate reason and may have triggered the GenZ Protests, the roots of unrest are much deeper:

• Comprehensive corruption: The scams, embezzlement and punishment of the aristocratic class for years provoked the anger of the public. Viral trends such as “#Nepokids” exposed the luxurious lifestyle of children of politicians
• Economic Recession: Young unemployment is about 20%, and more than 30% of Nepal’s GDP comes from money remittance. Many youth feel forced to go abroad for work.
• Political instability: Since the abolition of the monarchy in 2008, Nepal has seen 14 governments in 17 years. No Prime Minister completed his term
• Digital suppression: The ban on social media was widely seen as censorship, especially by Generation Z, which depend on these platforms for contact, activism and economic opportunities.

Is this just the movement of GenZ – or Something deeper?

Of course, these protests were under the leadership of the youth, but they were beyond the boundaries of generations. While GenZ gave impetus to this movement, the elderly citizens also joined it and expressed the disappointment of decades. The leaderless nature of this rebellion – which was marked by spontaneous demonstrations and decentralized coordination – has forced some people to guess whether external forces are taking advantage of this chaos.

Deep State or Organic GenZ Protest?

Speculation about online and media circles has intensified about the efforts to change power:

Some analysts suggest that protests may be “hijacked” by opportunistic elements, including a royalist group trying to restore the monarch. Others indicate a broad pattern of youth -led rebellions in South Asia – Srilanka (2022), Bangladesh (2024), and now Nepal – now question the coordinated destabilization efforts. However, former Indian Ambassador Ranjit Rai emphasized that this crisis is basically “domestic”, which is inspired by deep rooted domestic grievances rather than foreign conspiracies.

Is China or America involved? How is India Reacting?

Nepal’s strategic position between India and China makes it a geopolitical center.

Prime Minister Oli was considered a supporter of Beijing, as he signed the belt and road initiative and gave priority to China instead of India in diplomatic visits. China has appealed for peace and reminded its citizens of being safe in Nepal.

“It is hoped that all sectors of Nepal can properly handle domestic issues and quickly restore social order and national stability. China has already reminded its citizens in Nepal to pay close attention to safety,”

                                                                                                    Chinese Foreign Ministry

US -backed Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) has been controversial. Some critics argue that it is part of Washington’s Hind-Pacific strategy to combat China, while western experts see it as a means of development of infrastructure. The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) refers to a U.S. foreign aid agency that provides grants for infrastructure and economic development projects in Nepal. The MCC-Nepal Compact is valued at USD 500 Million Contribution by the US. Surprisingly, this deal though initially succumbed to President Trump’s decision to halt foreign aids, later survived and the deal was alive & running. This deal was directly impacting the calculus of US-China contest in Nepal’s politics. The leftist parties in Nepal were extremely unhappy, obviously, China was unhappy.

The White House has not yet issued a public statement on the issue. US has only signed a joint statement along with UK, France & Japan supporting universal rights of peaceful assembly and freedom of expression. The absence of a direct statement from the white house means a choice of low-profile diplomatic effort & more focus on domestic matters or a careful evaluation & understanding of what exactly happened & what are future implications.

India seems cautious but worried & has reacted with calculated diplomacy. Border states in India like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal are on high alert. The security agencies like Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) have increased patrolling on the 1,751 km long border. Government of India has issued travel advice and helpline numbers for Indian citizens in Nepal.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed grief over the death of youth and described Nepal’s peace and prosperity as important for the interests of India. India has avoided making direct political comments to avoid stress or intervene.

Prime Minister Oli was known to be a staunch Pro-China leader and consistently ignored Indian ties raising eyebrows in New Delhi. These protests and meltdown of Nepal Government have come just before a rare & planned visit of Prime Minister to India. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had invited him to New Delhi. Apparently, they were about to discuss border issues between India and Nepal, cross-border infrastructures & hydro-power development which is a counter-balance of Chinese influence on Nepal. India has a long history of close ties with Nepal, sharing an open border, cultural links, and economic interdependence, which naturally makes it a stakeholder in any Nepali crisis. So, India is extremely cautious & playing the geo-political chessboard with all necessary patience and maturity.

With the resignation of Prime Minister Oli, Nepal is facing a political void. Probably, Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki is expected to lead the interim government. The GenZ protesters are demanding extensive reforms as follows

• Dissolve Parliament
• Directly elected executive leadership
• Property check and nationalization of illegal funds
• Structural reforms in education, healthcare and justice

Nepal will be able to change this turmoil into constructive change, or it will move towards instability, it is yet to unfold.