In a massive escalation of tensions with Pakistan after Pahalgam terror strike, India has announced the immediate suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) following a deadly terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam on April 22, which claimed 26 lives that included a Lieutenant from Indian Navy. The diplomatic strike back, made by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marks the first time the 1960 water-sharing agreement has been held in abeyance, signaling a major shift in India’s diplomatic and strategic approach toward its neighbor.

The IWT (Indus Waters Treaty), brokered by the World Bank and signed by then-Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, governs the allocation of the Indus River system’s six rivers: the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi (Eastern Rivers) allocated to India, and the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab (Western Rivers) largely assigned to Pakistan. The treaty allocates approximately 30% of the system’s water (33 million acre-feet) to India and 70% (135 million acre-feet) to Pakistan, ensuring a structured sharing mechanism for a resource critical to both nations’ agriculture and energy needs.

The suspension of Indus waters treaty comes as a response to the Pahalgam terror attack, attributed to The Resistance Front, an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, which killed 26 tourists and injured 10 others.

“The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.”

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri After CCS Meeting

 

 

 

Implications for Pakistan

Pakistan, heavily reliant on the Western Rivers for its agricultural heartland in Punjab and Sindh, faces severe consequences from the treaty’s suspension. The move could disrupt irrigation during critical sowing seasons, compounding Pakistan’s ongoing water stress, with per capita water availability already among the lowest globally. Regulated releases from India’s hydroelectric projects, such as the Kishanganga and Ratle dams, may be halted, potentially reducing water flow to Pakistan’s crops and reservoirs.

Pakistan’s National Security Committee swiftly condemned the decision, labelling any attempt to block or divert river water as an “act of war” and asserting that the treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended. Islamabad has signaled its intent to seek intervention from the World Bank, the treaty’s guarantor, or other international bodies like the International Court of Justice. However, India maintains that the suspension is a temporary measure, not a termination, and is justified given Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism.

India’s Strategic Shift

The abeyance of the IWT enables India to bypass treaty restrictions on the design and operation of hydroelectric projects on the Western Rivers. Projects like Pakal Dul, Ratle, Kiru, and Sawalkot, previously delayed due to Pakistani objections, are expected to be fast-tracked now. India may also restrict the sharing of water flow data and suspend cross-border inspections, further straining bilateral cooperation.

While India lacks the infrastructure to immediately stop or divert the Western Rivers’ flow, experts suggest the move is a psychological and diplomatic blow to Pakistan.

“This is a major psychological impact on Pakistan, where water is seen as a lifeline,”

International Strategic Analyst Shashi Asthana.

Historical Context

The Indus Waters Treaty has been a rare example of sustained cooperation between India and Pakistan, surviving 4 wars and decades of bitterness. Previous Indian governments considered revisiting the treaty after the Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019) terror attacks on Indian forces, but refrained from this action to avoid harming Pakistani civilians.

“Blood and water can’t flow together,” – Narendra Modi, PM, India

As tensions escalate, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty underlines the decayed India-Pakistan relations and the strategic use of water as a diplomatic tool. The world watches cautiously as both nations navigate this extraordinary crisis, with budding consequences for regional stability and global water-sharing frameworks.