India is mourning the tragic loss of 28 innocent lives to a heinous terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir. Evidence unmistakably points to cross-border origins, with most perpetrators traced to Pakistan. It would be imprudent, criminal and untimely to assert that terrorism is faceless or stateless. For India, terrorism has a distinct identity and a clear source—a nation that India repeatedly branded as the “global epicenter of terrorism.” That nation is Pakistan, with its ISI once again orchestrating this vile act.
India is seething with anger, with resolve and primed to strike back. India’s aircraft carrier is sailing in the Arabian Sea, with the Indian Navy conducting high-stakes maneuvers in the region. The Indian Air Force has launched the intense “Exercise Aakraman,” signaling heightened military readiness. In a bold diplomatic assault, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, escalating tensions. Pakistani nationals have been ordered to depart India within 48 hours, and diplomatic presence in both nations’ embassies is being sharply downgraded.
What will unfold next? What strategic options does India have? Let’s dive into this unfolding crisis with continued updates.
One More Crossroad for India to break the bubble of Strategic Restraint:
In the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attack on the World Trade Centre in the U.S. in 2001, America was enraged and swiftly mobilized its war on terrorism. President Bush led from front in the war against terrorism and crushed them for years till they shot on the face of terrorism for the U.S. Osama Bin Laden. President Bush justified the operation and said the following:
“We did not ask for this mission, but we will fulfil it. The name of today’s military operation is Enduring Freedom. We defend not only our precious freedoms, but also the freedom of people everywhere to live and raise their children free from fear”.
President George Bush
Well, India has been on such crossroads time & again including the current terror strike in Pahalgam, Kashmir. India has shown maximum strategic restraint over decades, probably a bit too much. There are so many terror dates that have bled Indians, painfully, with no decisive actions on a deceitful Neighbour, which has become epicenter of terrorism. Visibly, Indians are no more so much tolerant to the terror strikes at the whims of terrorists somewhere in Pakistan.
For decades, Pakistan has supported, funded, and harbored terrorist organizations that operate from within its borders, perpetrating terror strikes across India and causing significant loss of life, both civilian and military.
India refrained from retaliating after the attacks on the Indian Parliament in 2001, Akshardham Temple attack 2002, and 26/11 Mumbai Attack on 2008. The bloodshed clearly indicated that the victims were targeted by Islamic terrorism propagated by Pakistan and their proxies inside Kashmir. India conducted measured surgical strikes after Uri terror strikes in 2016 and Pulwama terror strikes in 2019. But the lesson is not learnt by the terrorists and their handlers in Pakistan. India needs to do more, a lot more, something that will really make terrorists scared of carrying out such heinous attacks.
The Resistance Front (TRF), a Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) affiliate, claimed responsibility for the attack. LeT is a Pakistani Islamist Salafi jihadist organization. Mood of the Indian Government seems clear. They have a plan. The plan is to strike back, at a place & time they choose to go ahead.
The CCS meeting on April 23 emphasized a “diplomatic and military counter” to the Pahalgam attack, with sources indicating that a “proof bombshell” may be presented by the Ministry of External Affairs to link Pakistan to the attack.
The Diplomatic Punch:
In a bold diplomatic move, India has announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, marking a significant diplomatic offensive. This treaty, which endured four India-Pakistan wars, now faces collapse. The Indian Ministry of Jal Shakti has formally notified Pakistan of this decision through an official letter.
Additionally, India has closed the Attari-Wagah border check post, a key trade and cultural link, effective immediately, with a deadline of May 1, 2025, for those with valid endorsements to return to Pakistan. Pakistani nationals are barred from entering India under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme, with existing visas canceled and a 48-hour exit order for those in India. The strength of both nations’ high commissions will be reduced from 55 to 30 personnel by May 1, 2025, and Pakistani defense advisors in New Delhi have been declared persona non grata, given one week to leave.
And, Surprisingly, probably to the pleasure of nationalistic emotion running through India, Pakistan pulled back from Shimla Agreement which gave meaning to the word LoC (Line of Control). India now could opt to terminate the ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) and unleash intense artillery and rocket barrages to devastate targets within Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) with an aim to destroy terror launch pads and their backers, of course, Pakistan Army.
India’s Military Options to Avenge Pahalgam Terror Attack
Option-1- Combined Surgical Strike by Indian Air Force & Indian Army’s Elite Para SF
The air operation may be supplemented with lethal ground incursion into the PoK by Para SF with precision guided munitions. Such a strike will look like an upgraded surgical strike when compared to the ones Post Uri & Pulwama attacks. Such an operation will showcase co-operation, integration and will prove deadly to the terror launch pads.
Pakistan Army or Air force will retaliate, for which, as a country, India must be ready.
Option-2- Artillery and Rocket Barrages Across the LoC
Ending the 2021 LoC ceasefire and using heavy artillery, rocket systems like Pinaka, or BrahMos cruise missiles to pulverize terrorist hideouts, logistics hubs, or Pakistani military outposts in PoK. This would aim to degrade infrastructure supporting cross-border terrorism. India’s artillery units, equipped with 155mm Bofors and Dhanush guns, could engage targets along the LoC, supported by satellite imagery and drone surveillance. The Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launcher, with a range of up to 90 km, could deliver devastating salvos.
Option-3- Airstrikes Beyond PoK into Mainland Pakistan
Deep strikes targeting high-value terrorist leadership or ISI-linked facilities in mainland Pakistan, such as in Punjab or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, using Indian Air Force assets or BrahMos missiles. This would aim to disrupt the command structure of terror groups. Rafale jets, equipped with SCALP cruise missiles, or Mirage 2000s could conduct precision strikes, supported by electronic warfare platforms like the Embraer EMB-145 AEW&C. India’s recent acquisition of additional BrahMos missiles enhances its standoff strike capability.
Option-4- Naval Blockade or Maritime Operations in the Arabian Sea
All the options above will have elements of electronic warfare and cyber war
The Pahalgam terror attack marks a critical juncture. For far too long, India has ensnared itself in the outdated concept of a “Strategic Restraint”, while acting against Pakistan, the orchestrator of terror, only when an undefined line is breached. This strategic restraint remains smoky & vague: does it take the deaths of 5 soldiers or civilians to breach the restraint it? Or 10, 20, or 50? What is the acceptable toll of soldiers or civilian lives lost to Pakistani terrorists?
India must break free from this powerless strategic restraint and break the bubble. India must go ahead to hit the source of terror very deep, very hard. Most importantly falsify the Pakistani Nuclear bluff.