On Thursday, Pakistan declared the termination of the 1972 Shimla Agreement, a crucial peace accord established between India and Pakistan following the 1971 India-Pakistan conflict. Earlier, India had kept IWT (Indus waters treaty) in abeyance in the aftermath of terror strike in Pahalgam, Kashmir. The Shimla Agreement, formalized on 2 July 1972, constituted a concord of amity concluded in the aftermath of the 1971 India-Pakistan War. This war was precipitated by India’s intercession in East Pakistan’s struggle for sovereignty, culminating in the genesis of Bangladesh.
India’s pivotal incursion proved determinative in the conflict, with its triumph effectuating the secession of East Pakistan from West Pakistan, thereby birthing the nascent state of Bangladesh.
The 1972 Shimla Agreement was designed to cease the continued enmity between India and Pakistan. It endeavored to stabilize their diplomatic ties and established foundational tenets for subsequent engagements. Both nations committed to addressing disputes via amicable mechanisms and direct dialogues, excluding external mediation.
Principal Results of the 1972 Shimla Agreement
The 1972 Shimla Agreement delineated 3 critical elements that are now endangered in the clouds of diplomatic showdown and a probable military confrontation in the days ahead.
Amicable Settlement of Conflicts:
Both nations pledged to resolve disagreements through non-violent discussions. This was especially pertinent to the Kashmir conflicts, with India emphasizing that the matter be handled bilaterally, in accordance with the Shimla Accord.
Line of Control (LOC):
The ceasefire boundary established post-1971 conflict was redefined as the Line of Control (LOC) separating India and Pakistan. The accord stipulated that neither nation would unilaterally seek to modify this demarcation, notwithstanding divergent perspectives on the matter.
Formal Acknowledgment of Bangladesh:
The accord facilitated Pakistan’s official recognition of Bangladesh, marking a pivotal development after the emergence of the new sovereign nation.
Pakistan’s Withdrawal from the 1972 Shimla Agreement may be an Opportunity for India
Pakistan’s suspension of the 1972 Shimla Agreement could be interpreted as nullifying India’s commitment to peaceful negotiations over PoK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir), freeing India from the diplomatic and legal constraints of the agreement. This might allow India to treat the Line of Control (LoC) as a flexible boundary rather than a sacrosanct line, potentially justifying actions to reclaim PoK through military means. India could argue that Pakistan has forfeited its claim to a negotiated LoC as established in 1972.
In simpler terms, the Indian Army, Indian Air Force, and Indian Navy are no longer technically bound by the 1972 Shimla Agreement, especially since the Indian Parliament unanimously resolved in 1994 to reclaim PoK from Pakistan Occupation. The Indian government and armed forces may view Pakistan’s diplomatic miscalculation as an opportunity to pursue military engagement to reclaim PoK, should they choose to do so.