The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has criticized protests against him and his recent decisions as evil. However, his decision to arrest opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu, who has been nominated as the presidential candidate by the opposition, has sparked a debate on democracy in Turkey. İmamoğlu, who defeated Erdoğan’s AKP candidate in the 2019 mayoral elections, is an extremely strong contender for future presidential races. His imprisonment is widely seen as an attempt to eliminate him from Turkey’s political scene. Selahattin Demirtaş, the former leader of the HDP, has been in prison since 2016 on politically motivated terrorism charges. The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has repeatedly called for his release, but Erdoğan’s government has ignored these rulings. Is Turkey going to be a full-fledged autocracy?

The Decline of Democracy in Turkey

Since coming to power in 2003 as prime minister and later as president in 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has changed Turkey’s political landscape. What was once a secular democracy with strong institutions has now become a country where dissent is crushed, opposition leaders are jailed, and the media is controlled.

One of the most alarming signs of Turkey’s democratic downfall was the 2017 constitutional referendum, which effectively abolished the parliamentary system and granted Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sweeping executive powers. This shift allowed him to rule with little accountability, obfuscating the lines between the presidency, judiciary, and legislature. The opposition and international observers have criticized these changes, calling them a direct assault on democracy. While Turkey still holds elections, they are increasingly viewed as unfair and manipulated. The 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections saw Erdoğan secure another term despite serious allegations of manipulation. The state-controlled media massively supported Erdoğan, giving little coverage to opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The whole electoral event was allegedly damaged with news of voter suppression, irregularities, and intimidation methods.

The 2024 local elections, scheduled for March 31, have become another battleground for Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the opposition. However, concerns are growing that Erdoğan is using legal and political tools to ensure his party’s dominance. In recent months, the Turkish government has intensified its crackdown on opposition figures, arresting members of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and other critics. Many believe this is a preemptive move to weaken opposition forces before the crucial elections.

Protests in Turkey:

Unrest erupted in Istanbul last Wednesday after the city’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdogan’s key presidential opponent, was arrested on corruption charges. On Monday, thousands of people took to the streets once again. The situation had intensified on Sunday night, with security forces using tear gas and rubber bullets against democratic protesters.

Ekrem Imamoglu, who also has been suspended from his post as mayor, stated that the allegations against him were politically motivated, a claim denied by President Erdogan. A heavy police presence followed protesters around Istanbul’s city hall Monday night as crowds chanted and waved Turkish flags. Water cannon trucks were stationed nearby, but demonstrations remained largely peaceful, avoiding the intense clashes that erupted Sunday. According to government figures released before Monday evening’s gatherings, authorities have arrested 1,133 people since the protests began.

Turkey’s Future: A Fully-Fledged Autocracy?

With Recep Tayyip Erdoğan clinging to power, suppressing opposition, and controlling the media & judiciary, many analysts believe Turkey is no longer a democracy but an autocracy in all but name. The country still holds elections, but the conditions are unfairly lopsided in favor of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Critics argue that without significant international pressure and domestic resistance, especially from the European counter-parts, Erdoğan will continue down this path, decomposing Turkey’s democratic traditions further.

 

“Political competitors do not belong in prison or before the courts, Turkey should uphold democratic values. Turkey’s commitment to pursuing EU membership sounds increasingly hollow”- German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock

The upcoming local elections will be a major test. If Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party faces major losses in important cities like Istanbul and Ankara, it could signal growing resistance to his rule. However, if opposition leaders continue to be jailed and election processes manipulated, Turkey’s transformation into a full autocracy will likely be complete.