Should Ukraine become a nuclear power once again? This question looms large for the Ukrainian government and its people as they continue to experience an ongoing war to defend and restore their nation’s sovereignty. Amid the conflict, the geopolitical landscape across Europe grows increasingly dynamic and fraught with uncertainty.

Ukraine is not just fighting on the battlefield; it is waging an excruciatingly difficult struggle on the diplomatic front. With Donald Trump returning to the White House—a scenario that could alter U.S. foreign policy—Kyiv is under pressure to prepare a contingency plan. This includes convincing NATO members to grant Ukraine full membership or forging individual bilateral military agreements with major European powers. These are undeniably formidable tasks.

Yet, another potential path remains on the table—one that is both lethal and profoundly consequential: a nuclear bomb. A nuclear deterrent, after all, aligns with the language Russian President Vladimir Putin understands best and uses most often to strong-arm global diplomacy through nuclear blackmail.

In this analysis, we delve into the possibilities and the far-reaching ramifications of such a move for Ukraine, Europe, and the global balance of power.

Zelenskyy Faces the Critical Question:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine & continued war to that reason, coupled with the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, has created a critical moment for Ukraine, especially for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The historical moment is in the making, Ukraine must make crucial decisions regarding its approach to nuclear re-armament.

The concept is not entirely implausible. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine possessed one of the largest nuclear arsenals. Under the Budapest Memorandum, Kyiv agreed to surrender its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom.

However, Russia has already violated the Budapest Memorandum by invading Ukraine. If Donald Trump were to halt or reduce military support, it would effectively signal the collapse of the Budapest Memorandum, with the U.S. withdrawing from its commitments. The United Kingdom would face a difficult decision.

Meanwhile, France, Germany, and other European powers—whether acting individually or collectively—may not be able to provide Ukraine with the scale of support necessary to push Russia back.

Therefore, Zelenskyy faces a crucial decision: negotiate a deal with Russia, which could involve losing territory—possibly all of Crimea and much of Donetsk and Luhansk—or pursue a powerful deterrent, such as a nuclear bomb, in an attempt to defeat Russia.

“The image of Ukraine being invaded by Russia despite its security assurances and being left largely to fend for itself in this conflict may trigger a resurgent interest in nuclear weapons”

Aldo Zammit Borda, Reader at City St George’s, University of London

Is NATO Membership a Possibility?

It certainly is, but time is not a luxury Ukraine can afford. Time is critical because Ukraine is still actively engaged in defending its sovereignty against Russian aggression. Delays in NATO membership leave Ukraine vulnerable, as it cannot benefit from the collective defense guarantees under Article 5 of the NATO treaty.

Additionally, the geopolitical situation is volatile, with potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy, European unity, and Russia’s military strategy, all of which could further complicate Ukraine’s position. Acting swiftly is essential to securing long-term security and stability.

Donald Trump’s presidency is likely to complicate Ukraine’s prospects for NATO membership, as he is expected to propose a quick ceasefire treaty that will scarcely address Ukrainian interests, such as regaining lost territory or achieving NATO membership. The situation suggests only one thing: Ukraine has no time left to play the waiting game and fight a war with borrowed weapons, which will inevitably end, someday.

The growing reality is that if Western nations are serious about ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty, they must either welcome Ukraine into NATO or prepare for its return to the nuclear club it once belonged to years ago. However, the lack of consensus among NATO nations and an unpredictable U.S. Policy from January 2025, NATO membership for Ukraine looks impossible before Russia destroys Ukraine.

Can Ukraine Build a Nuclear Bomb Quickly?

Probably Yes. Oleksii Arestovych, a former adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as a guest on Feygin’s YouTube show, Arestovych stated that if Moscow were to deploy nuclear weapons against Ukraine, it could prompt non-nuclear nations, including Ukraine, to consider developing their own nuclear arsenals.

Arestovych further said that the war-torn Ukraine would require time to acquire enriched uranium before it could produce nuclear bombs, emphasizing that such a scenario is possible.

“Who knows where this uranium is just lying around? You just walk and see a barrel of uranium. That’s cool.”

Oleksii Arestovych, former adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

According to the 2022 IAEA “Red Book”, Ukraine has 185,400 tU of recoverable uranium, with 71,800 tU of that recoverable at under $80/kgU. But that is only Uranium Ore, Ukraine does not have the capacity to produce nuclear fuel on its own. At the same time, Ukraine also possesses significant expertise in nuclear weapons production.

“We have the material; we have the knowledge. If there is an order, we will only need a few weeks until [we produce] the first bomb.”

Ukrainian Official (According to a report in Bild.de)

The alternative route to building a nuclear bomb involves plutonium. Ukraine’s nuclear power reactors contain significant amounts of plutonium in their spent fuel, though it makes up only about one percent by weight in the large, highly radioactive fuel assemblies. Though, the plutonium from power reactors is classified as “reactor-grade,” containing various undesirable isotopes that make it less suitable for nuclear weapons, still feasible for use.

Technically, due to the absence of a uranium enrichment plant or a plutonium reprocessing plant needed to isolate plutonium from reactor-grade material, Ukraine is years away from building a nuclear bomb.

But who knows? Ukraine might already be secretly working on it for some time, especially after the Russian invasion. The mystery behind why President Zelenskyy raised such an idea in front of Donald Trump remains an intriguing possibility, one that will likely be revealed soon.