The Arctic is warming up and as its icy walls melt, what was once a frosted perimeter is quickly becoming a contested geopolitical flashpoint. The U.S., Russia, China, and Canada are all aiming the Arctic for its massive potential: scope of alternate shipping routes, huge untapped resources, and of course, military & strategic advantages. Is the world primed for another cold war?

Why the Arctic is So Important?

A 2008 report from the US Geological Survey estimated that approximately 22% of the world’s undiscovered, technically recoverable resources are located above the Arctic Circle. This includes around 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids (NGLs). The majority of these reserves are found in three key areas: the Beaufort Sea, the northwestern Russian Arctic, and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, although they are distributed across the broader Arctic region. Reserve sizes and production levels differ significantly by country.

Forty percent of the world’s palladium is produced in the Russian Arctic as well.

Climate change is opening up new shipping routes, like the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage, which were once nearly impossible to navigate because of Arctic ice. These new routes could shake up the global economy by cutting down shipping times and shifting trade patterns away from key bottlenecks like the Suez and Panama Canals.

In the arctic region, there is a rich presence of various minerals like bauxite, copper, nickel, phosphate. Greenland has 10% of whole of world’s freshwater reserve. The region has a massive scope of commercial fishery industry.

Russia’s Arctic Strategy: Dominance by Infrastructure

Russia has since many years estimated the Arctic as a strategic region for its economic and military aspirations. Russia possesses the most developed infrastructure in the arctic region, including a big fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers and military bases. With access to the Northern Sea Route (NSR), Russia is positioning itself as a pivotal player in the future of Arctic shipping. The NSR reduces the distance for maritime traffic between Europe and Asia, making it commercially important as ice recedes.

Russia’s military advantages in the Arctic, including radar installations and missile systems, is of extreme strategic advantage. These facilities ensure Russia’s control over shipping routes and natural resources, from oil and gas to rare earth minerals, making it a fierce Arctic power.

Russia currently possesses 11 submarines equipped to launch long-range nuclear weapons for full-scale nuclear warfare, with eight of these stationed in the Arctic’s Kola Peninsula. According to official figures, Russia has 7 nuclear-powered icebreakers and about 30 that run on diesel.

The U.S. Preparations: Boosting the Arctic Presence

The United States has historically fallen behind in the Arctic infrastructure, depending on only a few of icebreakers and limited military installations. However, recent changes in U.S. defense strategy indicate an increasing focus on the Arctic security. The Pentagon is planning to inject more investments in military infrastructure in the arctic region, especially modernizing Alaska’s missile defense systems, and strengthening relations with NATO allies to safeguard the prospects of U.S. capabilities to maintain leverage in the Arctic.

Other than military footprints, Washington is very sensitive & focused on its preparedness on matters like resource rights and sovereignty, especially, regarding Alaska’s continental shelf. The U.S. also understands the requirement to challenge Russia’s dominance in Arctic shipping routes. Though the U.S. does not enjoy equivalent infrastructure of Russia, but it is relying more on strategic partnerships and military upgrades to remain prepared, as the contest for resources heats up.

The United States is not conceding the Arctic to Moscow or Beijing. Vast frontier of the Arctic has my utmost attention.

Adm. Daryl Caudle, Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces Command

China’s Arctic Ambitions: The Polar Silk Road

China’s interest in the Arctic, though not in terms of territorial claims, is shaping up as part of its global economic advances. China defines itself a “near-Arctic state,” and is pushing its Belt and Road Initiative into the Arctic with the so-called “Polar Silk Road.” China is allocating investments in the Arctic infrastructure and research provisions; China seems to have plans on the new shipping routes and resource extraction scopes. PRC has an eye on the resource rich arctic region and has defined China as a near arctic state.

Officially China is maintaining only scientific and commercial interests in the arctic, However, its presence in the arctic triggers concerns among Arctic powers. China’s investments & transactions in Greenlandic mines, Icelandic ports, and conducting research expeditions, seem to be efforts in the direction of projecting itself as a stakeholder in the Arctic’s future map.

Canada: Falling Behind in the Arctic Cold War?

Despite controlling a large portion of the Arctic Archipelago, Canada faces massive challenges in maintaining its footprints in the arctics. Its aging icebreaker fleet and weaker military strength make it a challenge for Canada to project power in the arctics effectively. The harsh and remote nature of Canada’s Arctic territory multiplies these difficulties, challenging the ability to establish year-round operations.

Canada is aware of the growing geopolitical scopes & the new upcoming cold war in the arctic but has been slow to respond with significant investments. The Northwest Passage, a potential future shipping route, passes through Canadian waters, and control over it is extremely important for projecting sovereignty & power. However, with major powers like Russia, China, and the U.S. increasing their Arctic activities, Canada risks being crushed down under the bus, if it does not bolster its works to strengthen Arctic infrastructure and defense measures.

Arctic Cooperation vs. Conflict

The Arctic Council, a key diplomatic platform for cooperation among Arctic nations, continues to play a vital role in managing regional issues. However, the unpredictably increasing militarization and resource rights contest are the dangers to sabotage the Council’s efforts. The geopolitical ground-realities, while the Arctics is melting, are imbalanced.

Can the Arctic nations manage these tensions peacefully or whether the region will give birth to a new cold war? The U.S., Russia, and China are all heavily focused in protecting their interests, and Canada is crushed under growing pressure to improve the Arctic strategies. Future of the arctic is dependent on a balance between contest and cooperation. The Arctic Power Nations must break the ice before ice melts.

A New Frontier in Global Geopolitics

The Arctic is no longer an isolated, bulletproof fortress, it is now evolving to a contested region where nations are running relentlessly to ensure their rights & interests.

As the Arctic melts down, the world will see a new cold war, intense geopolitical rivalry turning the world into extremely fragile times. Whether this event spirals to a contest or a cooperation, remains to be seen, but one thing is evident, the Arctic is now a global flash point to project power, grab resources, and increase influence.