The Politics of water is inherent with a contingency of water-war. India & Pakistan have historically shared water peacefully thanks to the IWT (Indus Water Treaty, 1960); however, there has always been an element of uneasiness in this truce, amid not-so-great diplomatic ties between both the countries.

PICTURE CREDIT- DRISHTI IAS

Reportedly, India has put one more nail into the coffin by halting the flow of water from Ravi River into Pakistan. This piece of news has added one more depressing page to the already tensed diplomatic relations between the two nuclear-powered countries that have fought several wars due to border issues.

India has completed the construction of Shahpur Kandi Barrage in Pathankot, Punjab, India. The commissioning of this barrage is not just a testimony of India’s rapidly growing infrastructure; it is also an evidence of India’s strategic move in water management between two countries. A Strategy that is sharply blended with offensive diplomacy & a water-tight pressure to shape other Indo-Pak issues, from which India suffers, especially cross-border terrorism. The Ravi River is one of the eastern rivers as per IWT, wherein India enjoys exclusive rights.

What is IWT & Implications on it?

• IWT: Indus Water Treaty (Signed back in 1960)
• Signatories: India, Pakistan & World Bank
• Content: The treaty outlines a methodology vide which India & Pakistan are required to engage in co-operation, information exchange, on the utilization of water from Indus River & its tributaries (Ravi, Sutlej, Beas, Jhelum, Chenab)
• The Eastern Rivers: (The Ravi, the Sutlej & the Beas) – India enjoys exclusive rights.
• The Western Rivers: (The Chenab, The Jhelum, The Indus) – India got limited rights of building power plants, consumption, storage- All are conditional.

Timeline of IWT:

1. 1948- India temporarily stops flow of water in some canals connecting to Pakistan, only to restore after a while.
2. 1951- Pakistan escalates the issue with India citing blockage of water to several Pakistani Villages.
3. 1954- World Bank intervenes & mediates till 1960.
4. 1960- IWT (Indus Water Treaty) is signed between PM, India JL Nehru & PM, Pakistan Ayub Khan.
5. 1970- India commences construction of hydro-electric projects in Kashmir, drawing concerns from Pakistan.
6. 1984- Pakistan complains on Tulbul barrage on Jhelum river.
7. 2003- Jammu & Kashmir Assembly demanded abrogation of the treaty
8. 2007- Pakistan escalates the matter of Kishenganga Hydro-electric plant.
9. 2016- India reviews the matter in IWT meeting & links the issue to cross-border terrorism on the backdrop of URI terror attack. Pakistan escalated Kishenganga Project & Ratle Project matter to international arbitration. India strongly objected to any international arbitration proceedings. In Conclusion, World bank allowed India to continue with their projects.
10. 2016- Jammu & Kashmir Assembly demanded revision of the IWT.
11. 2021- India reviews the matter in IWT meeting & links the issue to cross-border terrorism on the backdrop of Pulwama terror attack.
12. 2023- India rejected the PCA (Permanent Court of Arbitration, The Hague) ruling, wherein PCA declared itself as competent to consider & determine the concerns raised by Pakistan.
13. 2023- India officially notified Pakistan with an intention to renegotiate the treaty, raising a concern that Pakistan is repeatedly continuing to act against the spirit & objective of the treaty. India is of the concern that the treaty is unfair & unnecessary concession to Pakistan.
14. 2023- Indian think tanks opined that advancement of technologies, change in climate also supplement to the need of re-negotiating the treaty.
15. 2023- Pakistan responded by informing that Pakistan being a lower coast party, is interested to continue with existing clauses of the treaty.
16. 2024- India completes construction of Shahpur Kandi Barrage in Pathankot, Punjab, India which effectively stops flow of water from Ravi River into Pakistan.

Can India or Pakistan revoke the treaty?

No- The treaty cannot be unilaterally revoked by either of parties. Only ratification of a new or revised treaty between two nations can revoke the 1960 treaty. Complete revocation can also be done, but, in compliance with Vienna conventions on the law of treaties, 1969, which does not seem feasible.

Current Government in India is more aligned to national interests rather than international treaties that are not considered fair to Indian interests. Most think tanks, diplomats, environmentalists in India have proposed to renegotiate the treaty citing the technological progress, climate change & of course, to level the unjust treaty, exactly due to which, Pakistan desires to continue with existing treaty.

The solution lies in joint management of water resources of Indus systems with an equal share of water between two nations, creating more workability of the treaty and improving dispute redressal mechanism, which is at present very weak, leading Pakistan to conveniently draw international attention to the issue and at the same time pushing India to use the offensive water strategy to suppress the cross-border nightmare, the terrorism.

May the water of diplomacy never run dry & prevent one more war between two nuclear powered countries.