Annual Threat Assessment 2024-USA & The Threat to USA Supremacy in World Order
Annual Threat Assessment 2024 has been released by the Director of USA National Intelligence. The report unlocks a few chilling details on a plethora of issues that are going to influence the world order in the coming years. The Apotheosis & synopsis of the report is unambiguous & paints a grim picture, i.e. USA Supremacy in the current world order is at peril.
Picture Source: https://www.dni.gov/
The report states in its foreword, “
“During the next year, the United States faces an increasingly fragile global order strained by accelerating strategic competition among major powers, more intense and unpredictable transnational challenges, and multiple regional conflicts with far-reaching implications. An ambitious but anxious China, a confrontational Russia, some regional powers, such as Iran, and more capable non-state actors are challenging longstanding rules of the international system as well as U.S. primacy within it.”
Indeed, the evolving global landscape presents a complex web of interconnected challenges that extend beyond the borders of any single nation. The gradual erosion of the existing global order poses a threat not only to the United States but to countries around the world. The interplay between politics, economics, and defense underscores the urgency of addressing these challenges collectively.
The report is frightening, largely accentuating below perceived threats:
| China | 1. Possibilities of growing authoritarianism in China amid several domestic challenges, especially slowing growth.
2. Chinese brinkmanship with USA & Allies & pushing ideas on international forums that support reputations of Chinese Communist Party. 3. Chinese ambition for reunification of Taiwan into China & the associated political influence on USA-Taiwan relationships. 4. Exponential growth in Chinese military activities in South China Sea & East China Sea 5. Chinese heavy-handed loan/aid policies & growing influence in several nations. 6. China’s 13.7 billion USD investment into disruptive technologies (AI, Advanced Semiconductors, Biotechnology) & the risk of proliferation into non-state actors or US Enemies. 7. Completion of 300 new Missile Silos & Chinese Leaders’ conclusion that current nuclear capabilities are insufficient. |
| Russia | 1. Continued Russo-Ukrainian War
2. A Decreasing Geo-political & international reputation of Russia & the risks associated with it. 3. Russia-China strong economic ties (220 billion USD Trades in 2023) 4. Increase in non-western clients to divert sea-borne oil. 5. Continued modernisation of WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction) 6. Russian Undeclared Chemical & Bio-Weapon Program 7. Suppression of internal protests & dissent to enforce a “managed democracy.” 8. Russian intent on weaponization of Space assets 9. An Increasingly alarming global cyber threat |
| Iran | 1. Improved ties with Russia
2. Chances of domestic strife in Iranian society 3. A direct threat to USA interests in middle east 4. Iran ties with HAMAS & brinkmanship with Israel 5. Growing UAV Capabilities 6. Iran’s statement that it is not limited by JCPOA to improve its nuclear capabilities. 7. Massive production of ballistic missiles in the region. |
| North Korea | 1. Growing Nuclear Capabilities & risks of proliferation.
2. Improved ties with Russia |
| India-Pakistan Ties | 1. India & Pakistan are enjoying a fragile calm since 2021 ceasefire resolution at LOC.
2. No effort meanwhile to improve the ties. 3. Rising militant activities in West-Pakistan 4. India’s increased willingness to respond to terror acts from Pakistan side, entailing a potential to trigger a rapid escalation.
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The above issues are detrimental to USA Supremacy in current world order & may push the international situation into a fragile future ahead. Unpredictable internal Political ideologies in USA, and one more rise of Donald Trump in his presidential race, may complicate the matters greatly. Donald Trump is not a big supporter of US aids to Ukraine in preventing Russia in its war against Ukraine, and his difficult thought process on issues related to Europe, NATO & related issues.
The growth of China in Asia, an unpredictable Russia, emboldened North Korea, an offensive Iran in middle east, collectively, stand as one formidable axis of threat to USA influence & interests in the world. Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach that combines diplomatic engagement, economic cooperation, and, when necessary, robust deterrence measures.
It is need of the hour for USA to re-invigorate the ties with Japan & India to contain China, reinforce Ukraine with aids to push back Russian aggression, strengthen military posture along with South Korea to check North Korea misadventures and bring Iran to table to suppress their WMD (nuclear & bio-chemical) ambitions. This approach will enforce a comprehensive strategy entailing innovative diplomacy, economic co-operation & military deterrence to protect US Supremacy & interests world-wide.
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