Asteroid 2024 YR4 has just been termed a Level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The United Nations has activated its Planetary Defense Protocol, which is primarily designed to protect Earth from hazardous NEOs (Near Earth Objects). This protocol includes several strategies such as continued detection, tracking, deflection methods, emergency preparations, and public communications. Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit Earth? If yes, when and at what scale? How much destruction will humanity experience? It’s time to understand.

What is Asteroid 2024 YR4? Is it a City Killer? It is Coming:

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. The size of this asteroid is between 100 feet and 300 feet. It may hit Earth in 2032 at a speed of 38,000 miles per hour, causing an atmospheric explosion equivalent to 8 million tons of TNT, which is 500 times more powerful than the atom bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), an asteroid of this size impacts Earth, on average, once in a few thousand years and is potentially capable of inflicting severe damage to a local region, hence, a city killer.

“It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4: the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid. Astronomers around the world are using powerful telescopes to measure the asteroid’s orbit as accurately as possible. But knowing its orbit will only tell us the asteroid could impact Earth; not how significant an impact could be.”

ESA- European Space Agency

What is a Torino Impact Hazard Scale?

The Torino Impact Hazard Scale or popularly known as a Torino Scale was adopted in 1999 by the International Astronomical Union, to categorize potential earth impact events. It helps the astronomers and the public to easily understand an NEO (Near Earth Hazard) that pose threat of collision with earth.

The Scale is named after Turin, Italy, where the scale was introduced & adopted. The Scale has provisions of ratings from 1 to 10 that helps to categorize hazard level.

What is United Nation’s Planetary Defense Protocol?

As part of the protocol, the United Nations supports and cooperates with IAWN (International Asteroid Warning Network) and SMPAG (Space Mission Planning Advisory Group), established in 2014. These two entities were formed because of continuous inter-governmental cooperation and are entrusted with a plethora of responsibilities and mechanisms to deal with situations that include the probability of NEOs impacting Earth. In Case of a Credible Impact Prediction, IAWN & SMPAG Will Operate in following sequence.

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART)

The DART mission by NASA was the pioneering effort focused on exploring and showcasing a technique for asteroid deflection by altering an asteroid’s trajectory in space using kinetic impact. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), developed and overseen by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) for NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), was the inaugural planetary defense technology demonstration globally. It successfully validated a method of asteroid deflection by employing a kinetic impactor spacecraft.

Launched November 24, 2022, on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, DART travelled for over 10 months before intentionally colliding with the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos, a small celestial object just 530 feet (160 meters) in diameter.  NASA confirmed that the high-speed collision of the DART spacecraft with Dimorphos effectively changed Dimorphos’ orbit around Didymos. This event marked the first instance of humanity intentionally altering the trajectory of a celestial body and demonstrated the feasibility of asteroid deflection technology.

 

What if Asteroid 2024 YR4 Strikes Earth?

Being categorized as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Scale, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has the capability to cause localized destruction, not an extinction-level explosion. The range of localized destruction can also amount to the complete destruction of a city or an equivalent area. Apart from immediate impact destructions, the damage can expand to a further dangerous level if it strikes a nuclear power plant or an industrial unit operating on controlled flows of gas, chemicals, or radioactive materials. It may also impact the Sea bed causing massive tsunami for the coastal city to come under the destructive force.

“Asteroids have been nature’s way of reminding us of our vulnerability,”

Renowned Astrophysicist Carl Sagan

What is the Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth?

When discovered on 27^th December 2024, Asteroid 2024 YR4 had a 1.2% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. Within 01 month, with follow-up observations, the probability has now increased to 2.3%, which is the reason of concern. Usually, such a category of asteroids like Apophis, when initially found to have more than a 1% chance of impact, sees the probability reduce to 0% after obtaining follow-up observations. But, in case of Asteroid 2024 YR4, the probability increased, prompting the United Nation to activate the Planetary Defense Protocol.

Torino Scale- Asteroid 2024 YR4 – Level- 3- Meriting Attention by Astronomers- Yellow- More than 1% Chance of Localised Destruction

“While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1 percent to a 2.3 percent chance on 22 December 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known,”

NASA, U.S.A

An asteroid of comparable size struck Siberia in 1908, resulting in the devastation of a forest area measuring 830 square miles.

Which Countries are in Danger?

David Rankin, a scientist at NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, has identified a ‘risk corridor’ for the Asteroid 2024 YR4, indicating the extensive area of Earth that could be impacted. Countries that could potentially be affected include Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Nigeria. A precise location is difficult to point at, because it needs more research and depends on the rotation of the Earth during impact.

The current alert level is the second-highest since 2004, when the asteroid Apophis was termed as a Level 4 threat. However, further observations later confirmed that Apophis would safely pass Earth at approximately 20,000 miles away in 2029.