U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were convinced that a decisive and rapidly concluded war with Iran was possible. According to this idea, such a strategy would have pivoted on the shock decapitation of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other top military and political leaders. The expectation was that the sudden assassination of the regime’s top echelon would trigger an uprising, reignite nationwide protests, and ultimately lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic. America and Israel anticipated that the resulting power vacuum could enable the emergence of a new pro‑American government in Tehran.
This did not unfold as anticipated. The U.S. operation in Venezuela followed a very different trajectory, and the same assumptions did not hold in Iran. Although the Supreme Leader was killed in U.S.–Israeli strikes, the Iranian state did not collapse. Instead, Tehran retaliated forcefully. The conflict has since engulfed much of the Middle East, with countries hosting U.S. forces coming under attack. Energy infrastructure has been targeted, civilians have been killed, and oil tankers have been struck at sea. Iran has asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, effectively determining which vessels may pass. As a result, the global energy supply chain now faces severe and sustained risk.
The son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed the position of Iran’s new Supreme Leader. In the aftermath of the deaths of numerous senior officials, Tehran has moved swiftly to fill vacant posts across the military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the political establishment. So, Regime has not changed. On the contrary, as per reports, Iranian people are gradually consolidating their unity on the face of war.
America now finds itself at a critical point in the escalation ladder, where it remains unclear whether to further escalate the war, that could destroy oil & gas dynamics in Asia and Europe, and ultimately across the world or to pursue a bailout, or continue a calibrated war that risks a decline of the tactical advantages it currently holds elsewhere.
Israel’s imperative War, America’s Burden
Israel’s calculus in this war is entirely different from America’s. For Israel, this war is existential. Iran’s expanding missile arsenal, combined with its near‑term nuclear capabilities, poses a blow to Israel’s survival in the region. Israeli leaders do not believe the Iranian threat can be neutralized through deterrence alone. In Israel’s view, the day Iran acquires a nuclear weapon would mark the end of Israel’s presence on the geopolitical map of West Asia.
For America, however, Israel’s necessity turns into a burden that has no end. Military assistance, missile air defense operations, intelligence sharing, and regional security missions, all consume American resources. Even if the United States, as of now, largely avoids engaging in ground combat, naval deployments, air defense systems, and military security measures in the Gulf region all cost extremely high.
What Has America Lost in This War—Physically?
- 13 U.S. Servicemen have been killed as of now, officially.
- 300 U.S. Servicemen are wounded (Many are critically injured)
- Command Centre in Port Shuaiba Kuwait is destroyed after Iranian drone swarm attack
- US KC-135 refueling aircraft is shot down in Western Iraq by Iranian air defense attack.
- Headquarters of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain’s Juffair area has been decimated with multiple Iranian missile strikes
- At least 10 MQ-9 Reaper US Drones have been shot down by Iran
- 3 no of F-15E Strike Eagle of US Air force have been shot down in Kuwait
- THAAD Air defense systems were struck by Iranian Missile attack at U.S. base in Saudi Arabia
- More than one E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft were destroyed by Iranian missile & drone strike on Prince Sultan Air base in Saudi Arabia, which left 23 U.S. Soldiers injured (5 in serious condition)
- USAF Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft were damaged by an Iranian missile strike at Prince Sultan Air Base in Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia
- A US Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II was damaged by Iranian RAAD air defense measures during a combat mission over Iran. The aircraft made an emergency landing at a US airbase in the Middle East and as per report, the aircraft will be out of service for a long time.
- A Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter of the US Army’s 4th Combat Aviation Brigade was damaged at Camp Victory, Baghdad International Airport. Its tail boom was hit in an Iranian drone strike.
- Almost 2000 interceptor missiles (THAAD+SM3/6+Patriot) have been consumed by the U.S. (This can be restored in 3-4 years)
Did Israel Drag the U.S. into the Quagmire of an Iran War to Fulfil Its Own War Ambitions?
It is an intense topic of debate. However, the optics and the strategic mathematics are clear. Iran neither had nor has the capability to strike the U.S. mainland. Moreover, Iran had not attacked any U.S. interests or assets prior to the war. There was no direct provocation from Iran’s side. On the contrary, Iran had joined a U.S. delegation in Geneva for talks, before the conclusion of those discussions, the United States joined Israel and launched strikes against Iran.
Of course, for Israel, the situation is existential. But for America, there was no trigger, Iran was not a threat. For Israel, understandably, there was little room to exercise strategic patience.
It appears increasingly clear that Israel’s sense of urgency, its military actions in June 2025 which triggered a 12‑day conflict and its influence among U.S. policymakers and the defense industry preponed an attack on Iran that might otherwise have been contained by Washington. Instead, this did not occur, and the entirety of West Asia is now engulfed in turmoil.
As the U.S. Fights Iran, China Gains Tactically by the Day
Beijing’s reaction to the rising tensions between America, Israel and Iran has been quite restrained. Publicly, China has condemned the use of force, called for de-escalation, and presented itself as a responsible advocate of stability. Personally, it has kept itself out of any military engagement, providing only covert intelligence support & negligible military assistance to Tehran, and focusing on protecting its energy supplies and regional economic interests.
This approach reflects China’s broader strategy for the Middle East: maintaining its influence without falling into any trap. Unlike Washington, Beijing does not assume responsibility for regional security through military guarantees. Instead, it uses trade, energy partnerships, infrastructure investment, and diplomatic flexibility to maintain its relations with all parties, including Iran, Israel, and the Gulf states at the same time.
Most importantly, if America remains trapped, China also benefits tactically. A prolonged US presence in the Middle East consumes political attention, military resources, and financial resources, exactly the conditions China prefers as it pursues its long-term goals in the Indo-Pacific region and reshapes the institutions of global governance.
Every U.S. air‑defense missile expended in UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq or Israel, is being closely counted by China and assessed against U.S. production capacity and its implications for American military support to Taiwan. In a conservative figure, America & Israel have already consumed nearly 5000 Air defense missiles already in addition to the launchers that have been destroyed in Iranian attacks. Israel is burning interceptors faster than it can domestically replace them. The U.S. is drawing down Indo‑Pacific‑relevant missile stocks. China is closely observing while remaining militarily disengaged.
The deeper the United States becomes entangled in Iran, the more it prepones China’s strategic invasion into Taiwan and a potential second front in the South China Sea, a theatre Beijing has been preparing for over decades.
Donald Trump, President, USA (Statement in the White House)
If President Donald Trump follows through on his stated intention to exit the battlefield whether or not a deal with Iran is reached, as increasingly appears likely, the United States risks more than the symbolic impact of having dropped a few powerful missiles & eliminated Iran’s Supreme Leader, who has now been replaced by the son. An early withdrawal could undermine American credibility. Washington would leave behind a battered Middle East, one that has taken waves after waves of Iranian missiles and drones, while Iran itself remains positioned to continue pursuing nuclear capabilities and controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
In such a scenario, Israel also may find itself isolated. The strategy of a short, decisive ‘shock and awe’ war has failed. The war has dragged on for more than a month, with Iran continuing to launch hypersonic missiles at Israel and U.S. bases across the region. The question now is whether Iran’s military capabilities & IRGC can be suppressed within 2-3 weeks. If not, Tehran may emerge more aggressive in the years ahead, turning U.S. influence in the Middle East into a reduced U.S. influence.
Uncertainty also looms over regional partners such as the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, all of whom facilitated U.S. operations from their territory and have since faced retaliation risks. Israel, meanwhile, confronts the reality that its air‑defense assets are now at a reduced capacity. NATO has shown little appetite to intervene, signalling that it does not view this conflict as its war.
As the situation stands, America’s weak exit will prove as consequential as its entry.
Thus, the United States faces a decisive choice. A decisive military campaign in the US-Israel-Iran War might restore deterrence, but it also risks a repeat of past strategic overreach. A quick rescue operation might save resources, but it could damage its credibility. Strategic disorientation, that is, continuing the war without a clear objective, is the most likely and most damaging outcome.