“To recognize an opportunity in war and seize it benefits you more than anything else.” This quote from Niccolò Machiavelli’s Art of War aptly fits the unfolding developments. Rightly or wrongly, former President Donald Trump and Ukraine seem poised to strike a rare earth & critical minerals (Ukrainium) deal that could aid the Ukrainian resistance. Trump’s assurance of ending the war immediately appears to be more about capitalizing on a trade opportunity amid a devastating war.

Ukraine will likely welcome the proposal, as it was thoughtfully included in the victory plan presented by President Zelenskyy to former U.S. President Joe Biden. Now, as events unfold, Donald Trump is eyeing Ukraine’s rare earth and critical minerals, in exchange for U.S. funding and military assistance, termed as the equalization of the $300 billion U.S. assistance to Ukraine till today.

Let us understand.

U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that Ukraine should compensate for financial and military aid by granting Washington access to its extensive yet undeveloped rare earth & critical mineral reserves. He stated that he wants Ukraine to provide “equalization” in return for the nearly $300 billion in support from the U.S.

“We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earth and other things, I want security of the rare earth, and they’re willing to do it.”

Donald Trump, President of the United States

Understandably, President Trump is reinforcing his “America First” principle and striving to gain something from the war if he is to continue supporting Kyiv with military and humanitarian aid in its defense against the Russian invasion. Clearly, Trump’s confidence during the election campaign in stopping the Russo-Ukrainian war immediately after becoming president is not as easily achievable as expected.

With Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, strong congressional opposition to conditioning U.S. aid is unlikely. Furthermore, Trump and his advisers have adopted a more assertive stance on White House decision-making, asserting that Congress has limited involvement in executive branch matters.

“If we call things as they are, this is a proposal to buy help — in other words, not to give it unconditionally, or for some other reasons, but specifically to provide it on a commercial basis, It would be better of course for the assistance to not be provided at all, as that would contribute to the end of this conflict”

Dmitry Peskov, Spokesperson, Russia

Ukraine possesses reserves of titanium, lithium, graphite, and uranium, which are vital for its future economic stability and could play a role in balancing urgent assistance with long-term control over its resources. Some of these critical minerals are located in regions currently occupied by Russia, which has been engaged in conflict with Ukraine since 2014 and escalated to a full-scale invasion in 2022.

How Much and What Types of Rare Earth and Critical Mineral Reserves Are Present in Ukraine?

Ukrainian mineral deposits are valued at USD 12 trillion, according to a report in Forbes. Ukraine has the largest reserves of critical minerals in Europe, including uranium, titanium, and lithium.

In 2021, Ukraine attempted to attract investors by offering tax benefits and investment rights to encourage mineral mining. However, these efforts were hindered by the outbreak of war after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

These minerals are highly valuable for industries such as clean energy, electric vehicles, and defense manufacturing.

Currently, 0.5 million tons of lithium reserves remain untapped.

According to Ukraine’s Geological Survey, the following types of rare earth mineral deposits are available in the country:

• Lithium, Muscovite, Tantalum & Niobium Ores- Donetsk Region
• Tantalum, Niobium, Lithium, Muscovite Ores- Zaporizhzhia Region
• Lithium, Tin, beryllium, rubidium, Niobium Ores- Kirovograd Region
• Titanium, Zirconium, Kyanite Ores- Dnipropetrovsk Region
• Titanium, Molybdenum & Zircon Ores- Zhytomyr Region
• Titanium, Zirconium Ores- Sumy & Kharkiv Region
• Chromium, Nickel & Cobalt Ores- Kirovograd Region
• Gold Ore- Dnipropetrovsk & Odessa Region
• Uranium, Tantalum, Rare Earth, Magnetite Ores- Zaporizhzhia Region

The above critical minerals and rare earth metals are deposited across Ukraine, covering thousands of hectares. Almost 50% of these lands is not under Russian control.

Currently, the U.S. operates only one rare earth mine and relies on China, Japan, Malaysia, and Estonia for most of its rare earth needs. Now, President Donald Trump views Ukraine’s rare earth and critical mineral reserves as a promising opportunity for the U.S. China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth metals market, controlling approximately 60% of mining rights and producing up to 90% of the world’s supply.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has responded positively to this news and it seems the U.S. & Ukraine are poised to make a deal to ensure continued U.S. Support to Ukraine in defending their land and equipoise the U.S. Funding. Without U.S. weapons, Ukraine’s military would struggle to withstand the relentless attacks from Russia’s larger and better-equipped forces. President Zelenskyy has no choice, but to welcome this proposal.

“We have enough rare earth metals, and you can see that Russia has been occupying our territories since 2014. Part of these territories indeed has large deposits of minerals. We are open to having our partners, who help us defend the land, develop these resources. They push the enemy back with their weapons, presence, and sanctions. And this is absolutely fair, We are open to American companies investing in Ukraine – and with pleasure. Why? Because if Russia controls this area, other countries and companies will step in. I’m sure among them will be Iran and North Korea. I spoke about this with President Trump – these are the facts. I would like American businesses, which are very interested in entering the Ukrainian market, to develop this direction with us”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

It is worth noting that Zelenskyy previously emphasized the strategic importance of these resources in strengthening Ukraine. As part of the victory plan, Ukraine proposed signing an agreement with the U.S. and other Western allies to safeguard these critical resources, invest in their development, and harness their economic potential.

If this rare earth deal succeeds, no one knows how long the war will continue, and President Trump’s strong assurance of ending it immediately after taking office remains uncertain. After all, the war now has a significant motive—this time, it is not about oil but rare earth and critical minerals.